First, for the No News. No new signals were generated by the programs this evening.
Second: Good News! The British Pound and Cotton are up strongly this morning.
Third: I want to spend a little time giving you some background before presenting the numerical results. I have spent the past three years writing computer programs that would generate profits on a mechanical basis. To do this, I used data going back in time as far as I could get it. This data was from the futures market. For many of the futures, the data goes back at least ten year. I then wrote these programs to make money over the long-term. Some of the positions taken are very short term (days) and some end up being very long (months). The duration of the position dynamically depends upon what the actual market does. My theory is that these signals can be applied to ETFs as well. I have not tested the programs on the ETFs because the data on ETFs does not go back far enough to be credible. My theory is that for the long-term signals, both the futures and the ETFs will make money or lose money in the same proportions. However, for the short-term signals, it is quite possible that the results may be different. For example, gold trades from 3:00 pm in the afternoon for 23 hours until 2:00 pm the next day. However, the ETFs trade during the hours that the New York Exchange is open. Therefore, there is a time-disconnect between the two. It is possible that on a short-term basis, one will be profitable whereas the other will not.
Fourth: The Good News and the Bad News. Both the silver and the gold futures were stopped out with intra-day gains. The stops are calculated on a minute-by-minute basis. Both metals rallied during the evening, then fell by morning. Both futures positions generated gains, but the ETFs generated losses. Again, this is a problem with the fact that the two are traded during different time frames. This won't matter so much with the signals that go for a month (and there are many), but it does matter with the short-term signals.
Gold: GCG10 Entry Price: 1139.00 Exit: 1143.80 Gain: $480
Silver: SIH10 Entry Price: 18.56 Exit: 18.615 Gain: $275
Gold: ETF(IAU) Entry price: 113.38 Exit: 112.39 Loss: $.99
Silver: ETF(SLV) Entry price: 18.14 Close: 17.91 Stop: 17.76
Choices: Exit on open tomorrow. An alternative would be to stay long silver and use the old stop of 17.76.
Open positions:
Cotton ETF(BAL) Entry Price: 36.75 Stop: 34.55 Last: 35.58
British Pound ETF:FXB Entry Price: 160.88 Stop: 157.31 Last: 161.17
Cotton CTH10 Entry Price: 74.00 Stop: 70.80 Last: 72.91
British Pound BPH10 Entry Price: 161.06 Stop: 157.94 Last: 161.82
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
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