Historical Returns

The following represents the BLOG's 2010 ETF returns vis-a-vis other benchmark investment measures:

------------$Initial-----%Growth----$Return-----$Result
BLOG-----$100,000----26.6%-----$26,646-----$126,646
S&P 500--$100,000----12.8%-----$12,783------$112,783
1.5% CD--$100,000-----1.5%----- $1,500-----$101,500


S&P result excludes dividends.
Return on one Futures Contract: $137,684 (roughly margin of $25,000 to $50,000).
Please see the BLOG page on "Shortcomings and Limitations."

Friday, August 13, 2010

.....And the Boards Light Up!!!!!!!







Before delve into specifics, I thought it might be instructive to look at what has happened to the grain ETF. The graph above speaks for itself.

Our ETF portfolio currently consists of nothing, since our Crude Oil system for the futures was stopped out today. The ETFs will exit on Monday, and we'll document the profits then.

Our futures only portfolio is:
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soymeal SMZ10 267.50 296.70 283.50 $2,920 46

However, we recieved a total of 6 new signals this afternoon after the markets closed and the data settled. Some of these 6 signals are redundant, and some of the 6 do not have an exact, corresponding ETF. However, I'll list them all here to give you a flavor for the kind of "voice" that the computer gave to today's activity.

Buy Gold
Buy Soymeal
Buy Corn
Buy Soybeans
Sell Short the Euro Currency

The grains have already been on quite a run, so the new signals are a bit surprising.

For Gold, the symbols are GCZ10 and GLD. The two systems have records of 27 wins out of 27 trades for 100% and the other 25 wins out of 27 trades. We will track the 100% system here in the BLOG.

For soymeal there is only a future, with symbol SMZ as shown above. We are already long soymeal, so this signal will not affect the BLOG. However, it is a reinforcing signal since the record is 16 wins out of 17 trades, for 94%!

For Corn, the symbols are CZ10 and CORN. We will not follow this ETF signal in the BLOG, however, because the initial stop is over 8% for the position. With one fifth of the ETF portfolio invested, this would be too great of risk for this BLOG at 1.6%. This violates our BLOG principles, so we will ignore this signal for the ETF. For the futures, we will probably follow it since the dollars involved are not that huge.

For Soybeans, there is no pure ETF, only the grains in general. The symbol is SZ10, and the track record is 33 wins out of 51 trades for a mere 64%. This win-ratio is almost too low for the BLOG; however the initial stop is shallow at 1.6%.

Lastly, the symbols for the Euro are ECU10 and FXE. FXE is long so one would have to short that. There is also EUO that is already double-short. The track record is 20 wins out of 29 trades for 69%. I like the signal because it plays well against the gold. Normally, gold and the Euro are positively correlated, thus, going long one and short the other is a hedge.

This is a lot to swallow, I know, but remember the old saying "the quiet before the storm." This is a "storm" of signals after a relatively quiet week for the BLOG. As always, send questions to bassanalytics@live.com, or feel free to comment directly to the BLOG.

Have a great weekend!

Sincerely,

Dan

If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

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