In spite of a seemingly oversold stock market, the Russell 2000 Index was down 1.5% today. The futures were up $1,270 per contract. The stop has moved way down, and will help to ensure a profit. We recorded the results of IWM, the ETF, as usual. But we also show for illustrative purposes, SHRTY (shorty! isn't that funny) which utilizes 3-1 leverage. Note that its percentage return for the day was 4.4%, which is almost 3 times the IWM return for the day. One of our readers was interested in knowing this. However, SHRTY won't contribute to the return of the BLOG ETF portfolio, since it is leveraged.
In spite of being right on the direction of the stock market, we lost money on the day because our coffee signal was dead wrong, as was our silver signal. That's OK. We are interested in the percentages long-term. We can't make money every day, or even every week. But we seek to be right at least 70% of the time, and make money when the year is over. That's the way the algorithms should work. But there are no guarantees in life......are there?
New Signals:
Our earlier signal to go long the Swiss Franc changed to no signal when data revisions were made by my source. Sorry for any inconvenience. I double-checked, and sure enough, there was a signal generated at 2pm Pacific Time, and now at 7:23pm, there is no longer a valid signal. Sometimes just a slight change in data can cause this. If a formula generates a value that is "just on the mathematical edge," then a slight change can change the signal. Mostly, even with data revision, this doesn't happen because the signal is more squarely in a definitive mathematical range.
Go LONG Coffee: Market On Open. Symbols: KCN11 and JO. Record: 66 wins out of 87 trades for 76%. Stop: about 1.6%. Gulp! This signal causes me consternation because it was a loser last night. Statistically, we shouldn't care about what our last "coin flip" was, since these events are assumed to be independent.
That's it for this evening. Good Health to You!
Our Active and Closed Out Positions Appear in the Table Below:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtYsMnbdw73BdHZNSXZ4SEhwVlBBbHVBZGdJTWJxV3c&hl=en_US&authkey=CJ_Z_KsF
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