I AM CURRENTLY TRAVELING. WHILE I EXPECT POSTS WILL GO UP EVERY DAY, I DO NOT KNOW HOW LATE THEY MAY BE DURING THIS PERIOD. I WILL LET YOU KNOW WHEN I HAVE RETURNED AND I AM BACK TO "NORMAL." I APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE.
The year-to-date BLOG return soared to 16.3% on Friday. Cotton and the grains led all the markets higher, based upon supply-and-demand fundamentals. Our corn signal is up over 15% in FOUR DAYS. However, we know that that is not what led the BLOG into these positions. Our positions are based upon algorithms that have been back-tested based upon historical data.
Gold and silver have been strong, and we exited two profitable silver positions just recently. And so the signals for tomorrow, 2 to sell short gold and 2 to sell short silver scare us to death. Given our recent success, it may be time for a pullback for the BLOG. In any event, the BLOG will only follow one of the gold shorts, since there is too much contagion risk for us to do anything else. The gold system had 28 trades, 24 of which were profitable, for a win-ratio of 85%. I will give no guarantees about whether the gold will be stopped out overnight or not; and I may not be posting again for at least another 24 hours. All I can tell you is that the initial stop is 1.4%, so even if the signal is wrong and gets stopped out, it will only affect our year-to-date return by -.3%, since each ETF position is only 20% of the portfolio. Good luck!
Our portfolio:
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 46.62 42.58 $3,456 34
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 75.15 73.42 $2,250 26
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 24.03 23.48 2.9% 26
Long Corn CZ10 488.25 528.25 499.75 $2,000 4
Long Corn CORN 32.25 37.15 35.15 15.2% 4
Long Cotton CTZ10 99.80 107.17 103.55 $3,685 4
Long Cotton BAL 50.07 53.12 51.33 6.1% 4
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy. We may have positions in one or more of the ETFs or futures of the computer-generated signals.
Our purpose is to quantitatively analyze markets to identify trends and over-bought/over-sold situations. We use computer programs applied to large amounts of data and trade markets by mathematical algorithms. We track these algorithmically-generated trades with ETFs and Futures. This BLOG is provided free of charge. Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
Historical Returns
The following represents the BLOG's 2010 ETF returns vis-a-vis other benchmark investment measures:
------------$Initial-----%Growth----$Return-----$Result
BLOG-----$100,000----26.6%-----$26,646-----$126,646
S&P 500--$100,000----12.8%-----$12,783------$112,783
1.5% CD--$100,000-----1.5%----- $1,500-----$101,500
S&P result excludes dividends.
Return on one Futures Contract: $137,684 (roughly margin of $25,000 to $50,000).
Please see the BLOG page on "Shortcomings and Limitations."
------------$Initial-----%Growth----$Return-----$Result
BLOG-----$100,000----26.6%-----$26,646-----$126,646
S&P 500--$100,000----12.8%-----$12,783------$112,783
1.5% CD--$100,000-----1.5%----- $1,500-----$101,500
S&P result excludes dividends.
Return on one Futures Contract: $137,684 (roughly margin of $25,000 to $50,000).
Please see the BLOG page on "Shortcomings and Limitations."
No comments:
Post a Comment