We will be posting the annualized returns for the quarter soon. The results were very, very good.
Thursday's results were extraordinary! Crude Oil was up 2.3%. Copper, the Russell 2000 and Cotton were all up about 1% each.
I think we need to step back and reflect upon what all this means. I think that the markets are intimating that the economy will recover. Copper, cotton, and crude oil are commodities that will be in demand as the world recovers from the so-called "Great Recession." The stock market is indicating that businesses will recover; it is a well-known belief that the Market runs about 9 months ahead of the actual economy. Note also that while the stock market is a leading indicator, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. Realize please, that no one has a crystal ball. However, I must ask the question, if recovery isn't on the way, then what might these prices increases mean? I am open to any other interpretation.
Listed below are our program-generated positions:
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit Days
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 81.50 $5,580 59
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.75 39.24 15.3% 59
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 682.10 $7,360 47
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.33 68.43 11.0% 47
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1578.40 1672.50 $6,880 38
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 351.45 358.40 $4,313 6
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.79 48.73 2.6% 6
Long Aussie ADM10 90.90 89.35 91.14 $240 5
Long Aussie FXA 92.24 90.28 92.09 -0.2% 5
Long Crude Oil CLJ10 82.50 83.61 84.87 $2,370 5
Long Crude Oil OIL 26.38 26.87 27.28 3.4% 5
The very attentive reader will notice that only five ETF positions appear above. For most of the first quarter, we have only had five or less open positions. In the past week they have expanded beyond five. This "overflow" of signals will be tracked in a second portfolio. This will avoid daily re-balancing the exisiting portfolio, which is difficult for an investor to do who is not a full-time investor. For the rest of the year, we will limit portfolio one to five postions, and then fill portfolio two with five postions if generate enough.
The second portfolio appears below:
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long British BPM10 149.75 150.54 151.81 $1,288
Long British FXB 150.46 151.07 152.34 1.2%
One postion was closed out of the second portfolio:
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Long Gold GCM10 1110.60 1114.90 430.00 5
Long Gold GLD 108.57 108.87 0.3% 5
We have three new signals for Monday, all of which will go into the second portfolio.
They are all buy signals: Gold, Heating Oil and the Canadian Dollar. Actually, the Canadian Dollar futures position went long on Friday, and since the stock markets were closed on Good Friday, the ETF version of the signal will be tracked beginning on Monday. The symbols for this postions, and their track records appear below
Gold, GCM10, GLD, 60 wins/71 trades = 85%
Heating Oil, HOK10, UHN, 46 wins 62 trades = 74%
Canadian Dollar, CDM10, FXC, 56 wins/67 trades= 84%
Good luck to all! The next BLOG post will show the results for portfolio 1 for the first quarter.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
No comments:
Post a Comment