Historical Returns

The following represents the BLOG's 2010 ETF returns vis-a-vis other benchmark investment measures:

------------$Initial-----%Growth----$Return-----$Result
BLOG-----$100,000----26.6%-----$26,646-----$126,646
S&P 500--$100,000----12.8%-----$12,783------$112,783
1.5% CD--$100,000-----1.5%----- $1,500-----$101,500


S&P result excludes dividends.
Return on one Futures Contract: $137,684 (roughly margin of $25,000 to $50,000).
Please see the BLOG page on "Shortcomings and Limitations."

Monday, February 1, 2010

Stalled POST

This BLOG has been fun to write. I am particularly enjoying the positive interaction I have been getting with the readers.

The markets were mostly up today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 100 points, and that is a big day, even at today's levels. The other major stock market indices were up. The metals were up, energy was up, and foods were up. The foreign currency markets were mostly up, and the U.S. Dollar was down. This is within the context of the U.S. Dollar having mostly risen in the past several weeks. Graphically, the trends of the past few weeks are still in place, so one could label today's activity a "contra-trend" movement.

Or is it? Well, this is why I stalled in doing this posting. Why? Because one commodity poked its head far above its down-trend today: platinum. As you may know, it is both a precious and industrial metal. As fate would have it, two of my systems signaled a "buy" signal for platinum (however, we will only track one here in the BLOG).

If the behavior of the other markets are indicative of the future, the platinum buy will turn out to be wrong. However, it is possible (but unlikely) that platinum will usher in an overall change in direction. Or, it could do its own ralley in the midst of other markets falling (also unlikely). The signal gave 27 wins out of 31 trades, for 87% historically. The average number of days in the market was 21, or about a calendar month. However, some trades were as short as 2 days. Those were mostly the losers.

No one likes to be wrong, so I stalled tonight before writing this POST. In any event, you win some, and you lose some! The symbol for Platinum is PLJ10, and there are two ETFs: PGM and PTM. I'll track PGM for you. Be cautious with either; average daily volume is in the 60-70,000 range.

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.32 Last: 19.69
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 141.31 Last: 139.22

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.


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