Everything UP

Everything that we track on the BLOG was mostly up today. This includes the major stock indices, foreign currencies, foods, energy and metals. The copper ETF was up a full 2% for the day--we don't have a current signal for copper. The cotton ETF was up 1.2%, and we do have an active signal for cotton.

There are no new signals for Monday. Short copper was stopped out for a small gain before it soared to the upside. The open positions and newly closed positions are summarized below.

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.22 136.32
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.43 20.56 11.2%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 76.38 82.58
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 36.79 39.78 16.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 615.90 629.00
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.49 62.80 1.8%
Long British BPH10 154.30 151.18 152.32
Long British FXB 153.55 150.83 151.97 -1.0%
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 270.00
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1512.90 1545.00
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 17.97 18.35 -0.3%


Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Short Copper HGK10 323.00 322.10 225
Short Gold GCJ10 1096.20 1115.20 -1900.00
Short Gold DZZ 14.22 13.69 -3.7%

If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@blogspot.com.

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Very Remarkable Behavior Today

Today found the U.S. Dollar higher against the major currencies (except the yen), and commodities dropping in concert. Stock indices were lower. A late rally in the currencies left them still down for the day, but brought the stocks back to parity.

What was remarkable was that the precious metals were up, while the U.S. Dollar was up. On most days, Dollar up means precious metals down. Today was different; it was an oxymoron. This strength against the odds may be signaling another upward phase in the precious metals. My short gold signal was dead wrong, but this is not a normal situation. The short Aussie and Canadian made money and were stopped out with profits. The big winner of the day was again cotton, with the ETF rising 2.8% for the day.

New signals for tomorrow: sell copper and buy platinum. There is an ETF for Platinum but not for copper. Copper system is 7 wins out of 8 trades; platinum is 32 wins out of 37 trades for 86%.

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.22 135.50
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.48 20.74 12.2%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 75.58 81.17
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 36.61 39.32 15.6%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 615.90 629.60
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.69 63.06 2.3%
Long British BPH10 154.30 151.18 152.61
Long British FXB 153.55 150.75 152.18 -0.9%
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 267.00 -2.7%
Short Gold GCJ10 1096.20 1115.20 1108.50
Short Gold DZZ 14.22 13.69 13.77 -3.2%

Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Short Canadian CDH10 94.74 94.30 440
Short Aussie ADH10 89.17 88.46 710.00

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Notification by Email

If any of you wish to be notified by email whenever a new post is put up, please let me know by emailing me at:

bassanalytics@live.com

You don't have to be a member of the BLOG to receive these emails.

All the best,

Dan

Gold Weakness Today

Gold was stopped out overnight, so technically, there was no ETF signal. However, a new signal to sell gold short was registered tonight, so if you are in DZZ, a stop will be forthcoming tomorrow. In addition, the short Aussie position was stopped out, and similarly, a new signal to go short has emerged. There is no short ETF for the Aussie.

The gold system is 39/48 for 81% profitable, and the Aussie system is 6/6=100%. While the later is not statistically credible, there haven't been many periods in the last 15 years where it would have been wise to have been short the Aussie. Hence, there weren't many instances in which a mathematically generated signal would have been successful.

Our Euro and Cotton positions are still valid and lead the way for the year. They are each up about 13%.

I have been corresponding with some of you and I really enjoy that. However, if you have any constructive criticism please let me know, and maybe we'll be able to make the BLOG better.

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.22 135.39
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.53 20.81 12.5%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 73.90 79.16
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 35.71 38.25 12.4%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 615.90 628.20
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.81 63.04 2.2%
Long British BPH10 154.30 151.18 154.07
Long British FXB 153.55 150.58 153.46 -0.1%
Short Canadian CDH10 94.74 96.36 94.91
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 272.20 -0.8%

Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days In Out
Short Gold GCJ10 1103.50 1096.90 660 0 2/24/2010 2/24/2010
Short Aussie Dollar ADH10 89.02 88.87 150 0 2/24/2010 2/24/2010


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Expanded Post for Today

Here are the new signals for tomorrow:

Sell Short the Aussie Dollar: record 5/5=100%; futures symbol ADH10; no ETF
Sell Short the Canadian Dollar: record 33/37=89%; futures symbol CDH10; no ETF
Buy the British Pound: 77/98=79%; futures symbol BPH10; ETF FXB
Sell Short Gold: 22/24= 92%; futures symbol GCJ10; ETF DZZ (caution: double short)
Buy Soy Meal: 16/16=100%; futures symbol SMK10; no ETF

If any of you know of ETFs for the signals that I listed above, please write in and let me know. Three of the signals are obtensibly long the U.S. Dollar and two are short; so, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.22 135.07
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.58 20.91 13.1%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 73.90 79.77
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 35.57 38.40 12.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 615.90 625.80
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.52 62.51 1.4%

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Most new postions stopped out; others stay the course

Many of our new system-generated postions were stopped out today with small losses. Our other postions continue strong with good gains. There were no new signals for today, 2/23/10.


Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.22 135.97
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.42 20.61 11.5%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 73.59 79.70
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 35.29 38.22 12.3%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 615.90 631.70
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.67 63.25 2.6%


Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Long British Pound BPH10 1.5682 1.5370 -1950.00 1
Long British Pound FXB 155.53 154.28 -0.8% 1
Buy Platinum PLJ10 1543.90 1521.90 -1100.00 0
Buy Platinum PTM 18.16 18.12 -0.2% 0
Buy Heating Oil HOJ10 208.98 204.69 -1801.80 0
Buy Heating Oil UHN 26.88 26.81 -0.3% 0
Buy Copper HGK10 337.50 334.70 -700.00 0
Buy Copper JJC 45.63 45.36 -0.6% 0


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Discount Rate Increase!

The Fed has increased the discount rate from .5% to .75%. This explains recent dollar strength and Euro weakness. I believe that markets move in advance of some events. Our Euro signal captured that and is our best position of the year. One other thing, in my 30 years of investing, I have seen discount rate increases result in drops in the stock markets. Mind you, rates weren't this low, and we weren't in the middle of the "Great Recession." Note also that we are long the Russell 2000 Stock Index and profitable at this point.

There are three new signals for Monday: buy Platinum, buy Copper, and buy Heating Oil. Both Platinum and Copper are industrial metals. Therefore, I am astonded that years and years of data and my computer programs picked them to buy on the same day. Does it say something about the future of the economy? I hope so. Also, Platinum is a precious metal, so it is like a gold play as well.

The historical records and symbols are as follows:

Platinum: 32 wins out of 36 trades for 89%; average days in the market were 29.
Copper: 102 wins out of 153 trades for 67%; average days in the marekt were 3.
Heating Oil: 58 wins out of 72 trades for 81%; average days in the market were 5.

Symbols for Platinum ETF PTM or PGM and future PLJ10, symbols for copper ETF JJC and future is HGK10, finally Heating Oil is ETF UHN and future is HOJ10.

Based upon the average days in the market and profit ratio, Platinum is probably the best bet for ETF investors. However, the funds are thinly traded so beware of the spread between the bid and the ask prices.

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.00 136.07
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.78 20.64 11.6%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 72.72 78.98
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 35.00 38.01 11.7%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 614.50 630.10
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.50 63.06 2.3%
Long British Pound BPH10 1.5682 1.5370 1.5470
Long British Pound FXB 155.53 153.00 154.00 -1.0%

Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Long Canadian CDH10 94.10 95.01 910.00 8
Long Canadian FXC 94.09 95.24 1.2% 8
Sorry for the error on the Canadian ETF. The ETF stop in the last BLOG was incorrect.


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Cotton and Copper Soar

The Copper ETF was up 2.5% today, while the Cotton ETF surged 2.8%. The Russell 2000 stock index was up .8%, a respectable one-day move for any investment.

There are no new signals for tomorrow. Some of our open positions are doing very well: see below.

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.00 135.24
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.32 20.57 11.2%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 72.72 78.13
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 34.72 37.55 10.4%
Long Canadian CDH10 94.10 95.01 95.50
Long Canadian FXC 94.09 92.50 95.66 1.7%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 614.50 628.20
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.61 62.98 2.1%
Long British Pound BPH10 1.5682 1.5370 1.5420
Long British Pound FXB 155.53 155.17 155.67 0.1%


Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Euro ECH10 1.36 1.36 137.5
Long Aussie ADH10 88.50 88.94 440.00
Long Aussie FXA 89.95 88.84 -1.2%


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Lots of Positions

We have lots of active positions at the present time. All of them are ahead for now. Two were stopped out, and we have two new ones for today, so the net number is unchanged.

The two new signals are to buy the British Pound and to buy the Euro Currency. The long Euro is opposite our current short position, so we will end up neutral. However, I intend to track both signals herein, since the short Euro position has been so profitable. The British Pound System had an 79% win ratio (56/71). The Euro Currency System had a win ratio of 58/72 = 80%.

The nature of both signals is that of buying in to an over-sold market. However, as I write this BLOG, the metals and currencies are beginning to collapse. They may be continuing the previous downtrend after the recent, short-term rally. This remains to be seen. I have read some market commentators that believe this scenario. This would forestall the long-awaited super rally of the metals, which has been expected because of the world-wide stimulus packages.

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 138.11 136.04
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.32 20.59 11.4%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 72.19 76.11
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 34.72 36.53 7.4%
Long Canadian CDH10 94.10 94.96 95.55
Long Canadian FXC 94.09 92.50 95.31 1.3%
Long Aussie ADH10 88.50 88.94 89.68
Long Aussie FXA 89.95 88.84 89.58 -0.4%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 613.80 624.70
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.38 62.47 1.3%

Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Long Gold GCJ10 1093.70 1098.50 480.00 1
Long Gold GLD 109.45 109.25 -0.2% 1
Long Cocoa CCK10 3134.00 3145.00 110.00 1
Long Cocoa NIB 46.40 45.91 -1.1% 1



Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Big Day for the Markets; Exceptional Day for Copper

All of our signals gained today; except for short the Euro. The stock markets all gained ground up about 1%--a good day. However, copper shot up 4%. Cotton was up strongly again.

There are no new signals for tomorrow. The list of open positions is quite long. Note that everything below the Canadian Dollar has only been in effect for one day.

Good luck tomorrow!

Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 138.11 136.20
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.32 20.11 8.8%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 72.11 74.91
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 34.72 36.40 7.0%
Long Canadian CDH10 94.10 94.96 95.40
Long Canadian FXC 94.09 92.50 95.47 1.5%
Long Gold GCJ10 1093.70 1108.30 1119.80
Long Gold GLD 109.45 108.49 109.62 0.2%
Long Aussie ADH10 88.50 88.91 89.91
Long Aussie FXA 89.95 89.31 90.31 0.4%
Long Cocoa CCK10 3134.00 3149.00 3163.00
Long Cocoa NIB 46.40 46.55 46.76 0.8%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 612.80 618.70
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.46 62.05 0.6%


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Lots of Action in the Markets and with the Programs

Again, it looks like the end of the U.S. Dollar Rally. We received a plethora of signals for Monday, so I wanted to write the BLOG early so that you can have plenty of time to ponder the implications. Note that many of these signals are statistically correlated, so there is a contagion risk if you were to take all (or even more than one.)

Buy: Gold (GCJ10, IAU), Russell 2000 (TFH10, IWM), Cocoa (CCK10, NIB), and the Aussie Dollar (ADH10, FXA). Note that the futures symbol appears first, and the ETF symbol appears second. The statistical win ratios are as follows:
Gold 54/73= 74%
Russell 52/76= 68%
Cocoa 283/459 = 62%
Aussie Dollar 56/67 = 84%

There is a lot to consider here. Good luck to all!

Open Positions


Long Canadian Dollar CDH10 Entry Price: 94.10 Stop: 92.50 Last: 95.40
FXC Entry Price: 94.09 Stop: 92.50 Last: 94.71

Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Stop: 34.72 Last: 36.02
CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Stop: 71.77 Last: 74.91

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 20.32 Last: 20.61
EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 138.11 Last: 136.20

Closed Positions

Long Copper HGH10: Entry Price: 2.988 Stop: 3.6085 2,012.50
Long Copper JJC: Entry Price 41.35 Stop: 42.0 +1.6%

Long Heating Oil HOH10: Entry Price: 1.9627 Stop: 1.9043 -2452.00
Long Heating Oil UHN: Entry Price 24.91 Stop: 24.81 -.4%


Long Platinum PLJ10 Entry Price: 1509.60 Stop:1514.90 +265
PGM Entry Price: 36.25 Stop:36.35 +.3%

Long Aussie Dollar ADH10 Entry Price: 87.28 Stop: 87.73 +450
FXA Entry Price: 88.66 Stop:88.18 -.6%

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

All Systems GO!

All of our systems made money today, and some of them scored really big. All of our systems are currently ahead. It looks like the end of the U.S. Dollar Rally.

One new signal for tomorrow: Buy Heating Oil HOH10 or UHN. Historical record 43 wins out of 58 trades for 74%.

Open Positions

Long Copper HGH10: Entry Price: 2.988 Stop: 3.6085 Last: 3.1335
Long Copper JJC: Entry Price 41.35 Stop: 42.0 Last: 42.70

Long Canadian Dollar CDH10 Entry Price: 94.10 Stop: 92.50 Last: 95.21
FXC Entry Price: 94.09 Stop: 92.50 Last: 94.78

Long Aussie Dollar ADH10 Entry Price: 87.28 Stop: 87.73 Last: 88.77
FXA Entry Price: 88.66 Stop:88.18 Last: 89.18

Platinum PLJ10 Entry Price: 1509.60 Stop:1514.90 Last: 1519.30
PGM Entry Price: 36.25 Stop:36.35 Last: 36.49

Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Stop: 34.70 Last: 35.65
Long Cotton CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Stop: 71.04 Last: 72.90

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 20.19 Last: 20.35
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 138.64 Last: 136.90

Gold GCH10 In 1073.80 Out 1077.60 Gain: $340

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Positions Stopped Out Last Night

Entry into Gold was stopped out for a gain.
Entry into Euro was stopped out for a gain.
Aussie Dollar is ahead big time with a trailing stop activated.
Canadian Dollar is ahead with trailing stop activated.
Copper is way up.
Platinum is way up.

Interesting Financial News Today

Our Cotton position had another good gain today, up another 1%!

Financial News Headlines:
1) There may be a bailout in the future for Greece
2) 7000+ planes were grounded today because of weather
3) According to Edmunds, Toyota ranks 17th in unit complaints per car. This is compared to 20 car companies, where #20 is the best. Mercedes and Porsche are 18 and 19. The #1 ranking belongs to Land Rover (worst unit complaints per car). Data is based upon the period 2001 to 2010. The purpose of this release was to help keep in perspective the recent news about the recalls. A group of Institutional Investors is buying Toyota right now.
4) Our trade deficit widened unexpectedly.

The big new signal: buy Platinum. The record is 28 wins out of 32 trades (88%) historically. Average number of trading days in the market: 21, or about a calendar month. An ETF is PGM; however, it is a thinly traded ETF, so be careful.

There are also signals to buy the Austrailian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro, Copper, and Gold. I am not going to present all of the statistics on each system. Suffice it to say that all of the buy signals are statistically correlated, so they are really all saying the same thing. The U.S. Dollar will weaken and commodities and other currencies will strenthen.

Open Positions

Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Stop: 34.70 Last: 35.59
Long Cotton CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Stop: 71.04 Last: 72.82

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 20.19 Last: 20.19
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 138.64 Last: 137.36
Technically, the Euro ETF was stopped out, while the future was not. Suggest a new stop of 19.98 if you didn't put one in before. This is another anamoly between the futures and the ETFs.

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Gold Update

As anticipated, the gold signal was short-lived. Entry was 1078.60 and exit was 1080.70, for a small profit of $210.

So, we are back to our two positions of long Cotton and short the Euro.

Cotton Gains Big Time

Cotton was up 4.3% today, bringing our signal for long cotton into profitable territory. The Euro was up, taking some of our profits away from the short Euro position. Overall, both signals are profitable.

I hesitate to give the next signal to ETF traders, for the signal is VERY short-term. The average length of time in the market is only 3 days, so beware.

The historical record is 51 wins and 71 losses for 73%. Again, beware! Entry price: 1078.60 stop: 1071.60. Note: This stop may change radically overnight. An ETF is IAU; there are others as well.

Good luck to everyone.

Open Positions

Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Stop: 34.40 Last: 35.16
Long Cotton CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Stop: 70.60 Last: 72.16

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 20.19 Last: 20.08
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 138.64 Last: 137.96
Technically, the Euro ETF was stopped out, while the future was not. Suggest a new stop of 19.98 if you didn't put one in before. This is another anamoly between the futures and the ETFs.

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

A Mundane Monday

The markets we follow were mixed today. Most stock markets were slightly down, the U.S. Dollar was up, most other currencies were down, and metals were up.

There were no new signals for tomorrow. Have a nice evening!

Open Positions

Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Last: 33.60 Stop: 31.83
Long Cotton CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Last: 69.19 Stop: 65.32

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 20.19 Last: 20.46
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 138.64 Last: 136.45

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Super Bowl Sunday

Tonite was a truly exciting Super Bowl. The statistical underdog won; but the team that seemingly everyone was rooting for won the upset.

Last week the dollar was again very strong. Our Euro position continued to gain ground. Our cotton position is still alive.

There are no new signals for Monday. Best of luck to you this week!

Open Positions

Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Last: 32.55 Stop: 31.83
Long Cotton CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Last: 68.99 Stop: 65.32

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 20.19 Last: 20.46
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 138.64 Last: 136.84



Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

One of the Worst Days Recently

Stock markets were down about 3% today. A bloodbath!

There is speculation that the government may be hiding 1 million extra unemployed in its statistics. If this is true, then future spending will be less than anticipated in earnings estimates for companies.

All of the new signals performed dismally. They were essentially market oversold signals, and were positively correlated. The markets promptly became more oversold. Everything fell again as the dollar rose. The old short Euro postion became even more postive than ever, and will probably be our biggest gain of the year. Cotton lost a little, and is still alive.

Open Positions

Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Last: 33.62 Stop: 31.83
Long Cotton CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Last: 68.99 Stop: 65.32

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.88 Last: 20.24
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 139.65 Last: 137.22


Closed Out Positions

Note: I stated that there was a risk that all of the signals could lose money since they have traditionally been positively correlated. So, I would have only done one of the signals.

Long Aussie ETF FXA: Entry Price 88.55 Out 86.63
Long Aussie ADH10: Entry Price: 88.24 Out: 86.99 -1250, 1 day

Long Canadian ETF FXC: Entry Price 94.01 Out: 92.86, 1 day
Long Canadian CDH10: Entry Price: 94.59 Out: 92.99 -1600, 1 day

Long Platinum PLG10: Entry Price 1569.30 Out 1547.30, 1 day -1100
Long Platinum ETF PGM: Entry Price: 37.00 Out 36.48, 1 day

Long Russell 2000 ETF IWM: Entry Price 61.20 Exit: 59.60
Long Russell 2000 TFH10: Entry Price: 612 Exit: 596 -1600



Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

The Day After the Boards Lit Up

Many of yesterday's signals were stopped out during the night. Therefore, the ETFs were never entered. This is one of the drawbacks of using futures signals to generate ETF positions. However, ETF data does not go back for many years like futures data does. So, we use futures data to write systems that have lots of winning trades.

There are 2 new signals for tomorrow: buy Platinum (again). PGM and PTM are two ETFs; I will track PGM herein. The futures symbol is PLG10. The last signal was short-lived, as you see from below. Also, buy Cotton BAL is the ETF, and CTH10 is the future.

Open Positions
Long Aussie ETF FXA: Entry Price 88.55 Stop: 86.63 Last: 88.31
Long Aussie ADH10: Entry Price: 88.24 Stop: 86.99 Last: 87.95

Long Canadian ETF FXC: Entry Price 94.01 Stop: 92.60 Last: 93.75
Long Canadian CDH10: Entry Price: 94.59 Stop: 92.99 Last: 94.14

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.32 Last: 19.69
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 141.31 Last: 139.22

Long Russell 2000 ETF IWM: Entry Price 61.20 Stop: 59.60 Last: 61.08
Long Russell 2000 TFH10: Entry Price: 612 Stop: 596 Last: 611.80

Closed Out Positions
Long Euro (ECH10) in 139.65 out 139.77 gain $150.00 no ETF position
Long Swiss (SFH10) in 94.79 out 94.90 gain $137.50 no ETF position
Long Gold (GCJ10) in 115.80 out 1119.20 gain $340.00 no ETF position
Long Platinum (PLG10) in 1579.00 out 1582.70 gain $185.00 no ETF position
Long Crude (CLH10) in 76.99 out 77.20 gain $210 no ETF position
Long Heating Oil (HOH10) in 202.93 out 204.70 gain $743.40 no ETF position

By the way, I know that we were stopped out of crude oil at a small profit. However, take a look at this. Any comments?










Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Stopped Out

Unfortunately, overnight Gold and Platinum were stopped out (at a profit, I might add). Details later. Sorry for the inconvenience.

And The Boards Lit Up!

There are so many signals tonight I hardly know where to begin. I don't have time tonight to document the "win-ratios" as I usually do. I'll give you those tomorrow morning.

The following are all buy signals.

Stocks: buy the Russell 2000. This is a bullish signal for the S&P and for the NASDAQ, most likely.

Metals: buy gold.

Energy: buy Crude Oil, buy Heating Oil.

Currencies: Buy the Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro Currency, and the Swiss Franc.

Note: all these buy signals are correlated, so doing one or two will probably give the same result as doing all. Also, note that the buy signal on Euro is offset by a current short position. Therefore, one may wish just to be neutral, or flat, the Euro.

That's all for now. Most likely, they'll all be right, or all be wrong. If they are right, then the U.S. Dollar Rally is over. If you have been reading the BLOG, you'll know that getting this many signals in one night is highly unusual.

Stalled POST

This BLOG has been fun to write. I am particularly enjoying the positive interaction I have been getting with the readers.

The markets were mostly up today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 100 points, and that is a big day, even at today's levels. The other major stock market indices were up. The metals were up, energy was up, and foods were up. The foreign currency markets were mostly up, and the U.S. Dollar was down. This is within the context of the U.S. Dollar having mostly risen in the past several weeks. Graphically, the trends of the past few weeks are still in place, so one could label today's activity a "contra-trend" movement.

Or is it? Well, this is why I stalled in doing this posting. Why? Because one commodity poked its head far above its down-trend today: platinum. As you may know, it is both a precious and industrial metal. As fate would have it, two of my systems signaled a "buy" signal for platinum (however, we will only track one here in the BLOG).

If the behavior of the other markets are indicative of the future, the platinum buy will turn out to be wrong. However, it is possible (but unlikely) that platinum will usher in an overall change in direction. Or, it could do its own ralley in the midst of other markets falling (also unlikely). The signal gave 27 wins out of 31 trades, for 87% historically. The average number of days in the market was 21, or about a calendar month. However, some trades were as short as 2 days. Those were mostly the losers.

No one likes to be wrong, so I stalled tonight before writing this POST. In any event, you win some, and you lose some! The symbol for Platinum is PLJ10, and there are two ETFs: PGM and PTM. I'll track PGM for you. Be cautious with either; average daily volume is in the 60-70,000 range.

Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.32 Last: 19.69
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 141.31 Last: 139.22

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.