Crude Oil rose sharply again due the perception of less world supply. It rose over $2.00 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel. As of the time of this post, it is trading overnight on the Globex for over $80. Just as an aside, gasoline prices lag crude oil prices, so if this trend continues, except to pay more to fill up your car over the next several months. Since our signals have us long both the future and the ETF, both positions surged ahead.
We shorted corn last night reluctantly, and it fell sharply, then rose to stop us out with a gain. This was only a futures position. We bought copper, it rose then fell, and we were also stopped out with a gain.
Finally, we are embarrassed by the last result. The bottom dropped out of sugar. The futures loss was small compared to the gains in crude oil, corn, and copper. The net was about $2000 for the day. However, the sugar ETF fell a whopping 5.9%, so our ETFs lost money on the day. This is a paradoxical situation. In the future, we will not put on any ETF system with a stop deeper than 2% or 3%, even if the future stop is small. We can simply take the future trade and ignore the ETF partner. However, for BLOG-tracking purposes, we recorded the large percentage loss this time, since that's the way we put it in the BLOG. As you may know, the loss was applied only to 20% of the computer-generated portfolio, so its effect was "diluted." Likewise, the gain on crude oil was equally "diluted."
Our overall return for the first nine months of the year is over 10%. Our "official" results will be released over the weekend or early next week if all goes well.
There are no new signals for tomorrow.
Our active portfolio and closed-out positions appear below.
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 45.09 42.23 $2,538 24
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 72.97 71.45 $70 16
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 23.38 22.89 0.1% 16
Long Crude Oil CLX10 76.47 79.97 78.63 $3,500 4
Long Crude Oil OIL 21.93 22.78 22.40 3.9% 4
Crude Oil Profit Target 85.57 limit
24.38
85.00
24.21
Note: some of our systems have a profit target or other exit criteria. Crude has been so volitile, that I decided to publish its target now. I also show below the psychological (integer) level target and its ETF companion for reference.
Have a great day!
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy. We may have positions in one or more of the ETFs or futures of the computer-generated signals.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Crude Bubbles Up
Our big winner of the day was crude oil, surging nearly $1.70 per barrel to 77.86. The signal was based upon a computer-controlled algorithm. However, the news today was that OPEC announced the lowest crude production in more than 8 months. I love it when the mathematics precedes the actual news....or maybe it was just luck.
For tomorrow, there are two new signals: again sell short Corn (futures only). The other, buy Copper (again). The symbols are CZ10 and HGZ10 & JJC. The track record for Corn is 22 wins out of 25 trades for 88%. This is the same system that gave a signal yesterday, and was stopped out intra-day. This is a rare case where all the action occurred intra-day; so this futures signal could not have been tracked by the reader. The signal is the same for the next session. Corn opened at 505 and is trading right now at 504. So, it traded lower yesterday, and closed higher. The track record for the copper system is 101 wins out of 117 trades for 86%.
Our algorithmically generated portfolio:
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 44.44 42.23 $2,148 23
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 73.29 71.45 $390 15
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 23.41 22.82 0.2% 15
Long Crude Oil CLX10 76.47 77.86 77.11 $1,390 3
Long Crude Oil OIL 21.93 22.16 21.95 1.0% 3
Long Sugar SBV10 24.30 24.93 23.45 $706 3
Long Sugar SBB 72.51 72.54 68.23 0.0% 3
And our closed-out trades:
CLOSED OUT SYMBOL ENTRY OUT PROFIT DAYS
Short Corn CZ10 500.00 493.00 $350 1
Long Swiss SFZ10 101.72 102.15 $538 4
Long Swiss FXF 101.00 101.25 0.2% 7
Long Soy Meal SMZ10 296.00 302.90 $690 13
The soy meal trade was unfortunately stopped out; but soy meal bounced off its lows for the day. Food has generally been rising; some predict world-wide shortages coming. That's why the short corn signal is scary. However, it is telling us (perhaps mistakenly) that corn is over-bought on a short-term basis.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy. We may have positions in one or more of the ETFs or futures of the computer-generated signals.
For tomorrow, there are two new signals: again sell short Corn (futures only). The other, buy Copper (again). The symbols are CZ10 and HGZ10 & JJC. The track record for Corn is 22 wins out of 25 trades for 88%. This is the same system that gave a signal yesterday, and was stopped out intra-day. This is a rare case where all the action occurred intra-day; so this futures signal could not have been tracked by the reader. The signal is the same for the next session. Corn opened at 505 and is trading right now at 504. So, it traded lower yesterday, and closed higher. The track record for the copper system is 101 wins out of 117 trades for 86%.
Our algorithmically generated portfolio:
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 44.44 42.23 $2,148 23
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 73.29 71.45 $390 15
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 23.41 22.82 0.2% 15
Long Crude Oil CLX10 76.47 77.86 77.11 $1,390 3
Long Crude Oil OIL 21.93 22.16 21.95 1.0% 3
Long Sugar SBV10 24.30 24.93 23.45 $706 3
Long Sugar SBB 72.51 72.54 68.23 0.0% 3
And our closed-out trades:
CLOSED OUT SYMBOL ENTRY OUT PROFIT DAYS
Short Corn CZ10 500.00 493.00 $350 1
Long Swiss SFZ10 101.72 102.15 $538 4
Long Swiss FXF 101.00 101.25 0.2% 7
Long Soy Meal SMZ10 296.00 302.90 $690 13
The soy meal trade was unfortunately stopped out; but soy meal bounced off its lows for the day. Food has generally been rising; some predict world-wide shortages coming. That's why the short corn signal is scary. However, it is telling us (perhaps mistakenly) that corn is over-bought on a short-term basis.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy. We may have positions in one or more of the ETFs or futures of the computer-generated signals.
Silver Stopped Out Overnight
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Big Day for Our Swiss Franc
There was a flight to quality with a big rally in the Swiss Franc. It is worth $1.02 to the U.S. Dollar. Gold and silver also rose sharply. Our computer-generated portfolio looks like this:
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 44.93 42.23 $2,442 22
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 73.50 71.45 $600 14
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 23.55 22.89 0.8% 14
Long Soy Meal SMZ10 296.00 308.50 302.90 $1,250 12
Long Swiss SFZ10 101.85 102.54 102.14 $863 3
Long Swiss FXF 101.00 101.65 101.25 0.6% 6
Long Crude Oil CLX10 76.47 76.18 75.37 -$290 2
Long Crude Oil OIL 21.93 21.64 21.41 -1.3% 2
Long Sugar SBV10 24.30 25.29 23.45 $1,109 2
Long Sugar SBB 72.51 73.52 68.17 1.4% 2
We have two new signals for tomorrow: buy Silver and sell short Corn. The symbols on silver should be very familiar by now: SIZ10 and SLV. For Corn, the commodity is CZ10. Since we are going to go long SLV, that will complete five positions in our ETF model portfolio.
The historical records back-tested are as follows: silver had 52 wins out of 71 trades for 73%. Corn had 21 wins out of 24 trades for 88%. Both of these signals scare me, since silver seems overbought, and corn is extremely volitile from day-to-day as supply and demand statistics are released.
Have a nice evening!
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 44.93 42.23 $2,442 22
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 73.50 71.45 $600 14
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 23.55 22.89 0.8% 14
Long Soy Meal SMZ10 296.00 308.50 302.90 $1,250 12
Long Swiss SFZ10 101.85 102.54 102.14 $863 3
Long Swiss FXF 101.00 101.65 101.25 0.6% 6
Long Crude Oil CLX10 76.47 76.18 75.37 -$290 2
Long Crude Oil OIL 21.93 21.64 21.41 -1.3% 2
Long Sugar SBV10 24.30 25.29 23.45 $1,109 2
Long Sugar SBB 72.51 73.52 68.17 1.4% 2
We have two new signals for tomorrow: buy Silver and sell short Corn. The symbols on silver should be very familiar by now: SIZ10 and SLV. For Corn, the commodity is CZ10. Since we are going to go long SLV, that will complete five positions in our ETF model portfolio.
The historical records back-tested are as follows: silver had 52 wins out of 71 trades for 73%. Corn had 21 wins out of 24 trades for 88%. Both of these signals scare me, since silver seems overbought, and corn is extremely volitile from day-to-day as supply and demand statistics are released.
Have a nice evening!
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Silver Closed Out
The following positions were closed out today:
CLOSED OUT SYMBOL ENTRY OUT PROFIT DAYS
Long Copper HGU10 357.70 361.45 $938 4
Long Copper JJC 48.27 48.08 -0.4% 4
Long Silver SLV 18.36 21.05 14.7% 34
The following positions are the open portfolio:
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 44.97 42.23 $2,466 21
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 72.98 71.45 $80 13
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 23.37 22.88 0.0% 13
Long Soy Meal SMZ10 296.00 315.70 302.90 $1,970 11
Long Swiss SFZ10 101.85 101.55 100.52 -$375 2
Long Swiss FXF 101.00 100.88 99.86 -0.1% 5
Long Crude Oil CLX10 76.47 76.52 75.37 $50 1
Long Crude Oil OIL 21.93 21.69 21.36 -1.1% 1
Long Sugar SBV10 24.30 24.98 23.45 $762 1
Long Sugar SBB 72.51 72.90 68.43 0.5% 1
Remarkably, there are no new signals for tomorrow.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
CLOSED OUT SYMBOL ENTRY OUT PROFIT DAYS
Long Copper HGU10 357.70 361.45 $938 4
Long Copper JJC 48.27 48.08 -0.4% 4
Long Silver SLV 18.36 21.05 14.7% 34
The following positions are the open portfolio:
PORTFOLIO SYMBOL ENTRY CLOSE STOP PROFIT DAYS
Long Soy Oil BOZ10 40.86 44.97 42.23 $2,466 21
Long Zealand NE1U10 72.90 72.98 71.45 $80 13
Long Zealand BNZ 23.36 23.37 22.88 0.0% 13
Long Soy Meal SMZ10 296.00 315.70 302.90 $1,970 11
Long Swiss SFZ10 101.85 101.55 100.52 -$375 2
Long Swiss FXF 101.00 100.88 99.86 -0.1% 5
Long Crude Oil CLX10 76.47 76.52 75.37 $50 1
Long Crude Oil OIL 21.93 21.69 21.36 -1.1% 1
Long Sugar SBV10 24.30 24.98 23.45 $762 1
Long Sugar SBB 72.51 72.90 68.43 0.5% 1
Remarkably, there are no new signals for tomorrow.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should discuss any investment with their personal investment counsel. The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
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