January is the Reason for Our Blog

This is the most important POST that I could ever do. The reason for our BLOG is to present alternative market trends to the readers. Alternative to what?

Look at your 401(K) or your investment portfolio for the month of January. The S&P, an index for the biggest 500 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, was down 5% for the month. How much was your portfolio down?

There is a time to be in, a time to be out, and a time to be short.

We are down to one position: being short the Euro Currency, or long the U.S. Dollar. Everything else has fallen this month. So, when my programs went short the Euro, one could have simply exited all postions and waited....... At the very least, you would have lost nothing.

That would be one approach. Or, you could have actually gone short the Euro through an ETF. That would have made you 7% so far. In any event, I think I have made my point. No, actually January made the point.

Short Euro ETF EOU Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.29 Last: 19.89 UP 7.5%
Short Euro EUH10: 144.97 Stop: 141.38 Last: 138.58

Soybeans was stopped out with a loss; there was no ETF play on Soybeans.

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

An Intellectual Theory

There is an intellectual theory asserting that markets are a random walk. I never believed that theory. I believe that many markets do trend over certain timeframes. If you want partial proof, or at least a counter-example, just look at the behavior of the last two weeks. The U.S. Dollar has been generally strong. For the most part, most of the other markets we track were down: stock markets, metals, energy, and food.

There are no new signals for tomorrow. The existing positions are shown below. Both of these positions improved in value from yesterday.

Long Soybeans SH10: Entry Price: 955 Stop: 919 Last: 932.75

Short Euro ETF EOU Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.09 Last: 19.57
Short Euro EUH10: 144.97 Stop: 142.09 Last: 139.70


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

No New Signals

There were no new signals from my programs for today's market.

The action continued with a similar theme to recent days: the U.S. Dollar was strong, while many investments were weak. The stock market, energy, metals, and foods were weak. Our soybeans lost money, but our short Euro continued to make gains. Two other positions never made it to the ETF stage, because they were short-lived.

Long Soybeans SH10: Entry Price: 955 Stop: 919 Last: 929

Short Euro ETF EOU Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.09 Last: 19.46
Short Euro EUH10: 144.97 Stop: 142.09 Last: 140.21

Long Copper: Entry 3.3395 Out 3.2795
Long Heating Oil: Entry 196.02 Out 196.91


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

Update: Heating Oil Signal Over; Copper Over

During last evening, heating oil rose, then was stopped out for a profit. Therefore, technically, there is no current signal on heating oil. This also means that the ETF position never even took effect.

In addition, Copper was stopped out with a loss. Therefore, the ETF is irrelevant. I'll give you statistics tonight.


Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.

The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.

More Dollar Strength

Today was characterized by more strength in the U.S. Dollar. However, silver rallied back in spite of dollar strength. Our short Euro position improved, and is well ahead. Our soybean position improved, but is still in the negative for now.

For tomorrow, buy Copper, HGH10. The record is 39/51 for a 76% win ratio. However, be advised that Copper was UP about 100% last year. So, many commentators feel it is over-bought and due for a correction downward. It is an industrial metal and may be telling us the Global economy will be recovering. We'll have to wait and see. The ETF is JJC.

For tomorrow, buy Heating Oil, HOH10. The record is 50/59 for 85%, but bear in mind that Heating Oil has been in a precipitous decline. It is scary to buy in right here. The ETF is UHN.

If the U.S. Dollar continues strong, then both of the new signals could be disastrous.

Long Soybeans SH10: Entry Price: 955 Stop: 919 Last: 947.5

Short Euro ETF EOU Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 18.84 Last: 19.28
Short Euro EUH10: 144.97 Stop: 143.07 Last: 140.69

Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.