Stock markets were down about 3% today. A bloodbath!
There is speculation that the government may be hiding 1 million extra unemployed in its statistics. If this is true, then future spending will be less than anticipated in earnings estimates for companies.
All of the new signals performed dismally. They were essentially market oversold signals, and were positively correlated. The markets promptly became more oversold. Everything fell again as the dollar rose. The old short Euro postion became even more postive than ever, and will probably be our biggest gain of the year. Cotton lost a little, and is still alive.
Open Positions
Long Cotton ETF BAL: Entry Price 34.02 Last: 33.62 Stop: 31.83
Long Cotton CTH10: Entry Price: 69.82 Last: 68.99 Stop: 65.32
Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.88 Last: 20.24
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 139.65 Last: 137.22
Closed Out Positions
Note: I stated that there was a risk that all of the signals could lose money since they have traditionally been positively correlated. So, I would have only done one of the signals.
Long Aussie ETF FXA: Entry Price 88.55 Out 86.63
Long Aussie ADH10: Entry Price: 88.24 Out: 86.99 -1250, 1 day
Long Canadian ETF FXC: Entry Price 94.01 Out: 92.86, 1 day
Long Canadian CDH10: Entry Price: 94.59 Out: 92.99 -1600, 1 day
Long Platinum PLG10: Entry Price 1569.30 Out 1547.30, 1 day -1100
Long Platinum ETF PGM: Entry Price: 37.00 Out 36.48, 1 day
Long Russell 2000 ETF IWM: Entry Price 61.20 Exit: 59.60
Long Russell 2000 TFH10: Entry Price: 612 Exit: 596 -1600
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
The Day After the Boards Lit Up
Many of yesterday's signals were stopped out during the night. Therefore, the ETFs were never entered. This is one of the drawbacks of using futures signals to generate ETF positions. However, ETF data does not go back for many years like futures data does. So, we use futures data to write systems that have lots of winning trades.
There are 2 new signals for tomorrow: buy Platinum (again). PGM and PTM are two ETFs; I will track PGM herein. The futures symbol is PLG10. The last signal was short-lived, as you see from below. Also, buy Cotton BAL is the ETF, and CTH10 is the future.
Open Positions
Long Aussie ETF FXA: Entry Price 88.55 Stop: 86.63 Last: 88.31
Long Aussie ADH10: Entry Price: 88.24 Stop: 86.99 Last: 87.95
Long Canadian ETF FXC: Entry Price 94.01 Stop: 92.60 Last: 93.75
Long Canadian CDH10: Entry Price: 94.59 Stop: 92.99 Last: 94.14
Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.32 Last: 19.69
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 141.31 Last: 139.22
Long Russell 2000 ETF IWM: Entry Price 61.20 Stop: 59.60 Last: 61.08
Long Russell 2000 TFH10: Entry Price: 612 Stop: 596 Last: 611.80
Closed Out Positions
Long Euro (ECH10) in 139.65 out 139.77 gain $150.00 no ETF position
Long Swiss (SFH10) in 94.79 out 94.90 gain $137.50 no ETF position
Long Gold (GCJ10) in 115.80 out 1119.20 gain $340.00 no ETF position
Long Platinum (PLG10) in 1579.00 out 1582.70 gain $185.00 no ETF position
Long Crude (CLH10) in 76.99 out 77.20 gain $210 no ETF position
Long Heating Oil (HOH10) in 202.93 out 204.70 gain $743.40 no ETF position
By the way, I know that we were stopped out of crude oil at a small profit. However, take a look at this. Any comments?
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
There are 2 new signals for tomorrow: buy Platinum (again). PGM and PTM are two ETFs; I will track PGM herein. The futures symbol is PLG10. The last signal was short-lived, as you see from below. Also, buy Cotton BAL is the ETF, and CTH10 is the future.
Open Positions
Long Aussie ETF FXA: Entry Price 88.55 Stop: 86.63 Last: 88.31
Long Aussie ADH10: Entry Price: 88.24 Stop: 86.99 Last: 87.95
Long Canadian ETF FXC: Entry Price 94.01 Stop: 92.60 Last: 93.75
Long Canadian CDH10: Entry Price: 94.59 Stop: 92.99 Last: 94.14
Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.32 Last: 19.69
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 141.31 Last: 139.22
Long Russell 2000 ETF IWM: Entry Price 61.20 Stop: 59.60 Last: 61.08
Long Russell 2000 TFH10: Entry Price: 612 Stop: 596 Last: 611.80
Closed Out Positions
Long Euro (ECH10) in 139.65 out 139.77 gain $150.00 no ETF position
Long Swiss (SFH10) in 94.79 out 94.90 gain $137.50 no ETF position
Long Gold (GCJ10) in 115.80 out 1119.20 gain $340.00 no ETF position
Long Platinum (PLG10) in 1579.00 out 1582.70 gain $185.00 no ETF position
Long Crude (CLH10) in 76.99 out 77.20 gain $210 no ETF position
Long Heating Oil (HOH10) in 202.93 out 204.70 gain $743.40 no ETF position
By the way, I know that we were stopped out of crude oil at a small profit. However, take a look at this. Any comments?
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Stopped Out
Unfortunately, overnight Gold and Platinum were stopped out (at a profit, I might add). Details later. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
And The Boards Lit Up!
There are so many signals tonight I hardly know where to begin. I don't have time tonight to document the "win-ratios" as I usually do. I'll give you those tomorrow morning.
The following are all buy signals.
Stocks: buy the Russell 2000. This is a bullish signal for the S&P and for the NASDAQ, most likely.
Metals: buy gold.
Energy: buy Crude Oil, buy Heating Oil.
Currencies: Buy the Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro Currency, and the Swiss Franc.
Note: all these buy signals are correlated, so doing one or two will probably give the same result as doing all. Also, note that the buy signal on Euro is offset by a current short position. Therefore, one may wish just to be neutral, or flat, the Euro.
That's all for now. Most likely, they'll all be right, or all be wrong. If they are right, then the U.S. Dollar Rally is over. If you have been reading the BLOG, you'll know that getting this many signals in one night is highly unusual.
The following are all buy signals.
Stocks: buy the Russell 2000. This is a bullish signal for the S&P and for the NASDAQ, most likely.
Metals: buy gold.
Energy: buy Crude Oil, buy Heating Oil.
Currencies: Buy the Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro Currency, and the Swiss Franc.
Note: all these buy signals are correlated, so doing one or two will probably give the same result as doing all. Also, note that the buy signal on Euro is offset by a current short position. Therefore, one may wish just to be neutral, or flat, the Euro.
That's all for now. Most likely, they'll all be right, or all be wrong. If they are right, then the U.S. Dollar Rally is over. If you have been reading the BLOG, you'll know that getting this many signals in one night is highly unusual.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Stalled POST
This BLOG has been fun to write. I am particularly enjoying the positive interaction I have been getting with the readers.
The markets were mostly up today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 100 points, and that is a big day, even at today's levels. The other major stock market indices were up. The metals were up, energy was up, and foods were up. The foreign currency markets were mostly up, and the U.S. Dollar was down. This is within the context of the U.S. Dollar having mostly risen in the past several weeks. Graphically, the trends of the past few weeks are still in place, so one could label today's activity a "contra-trend" movement.
Or is it? Well, this is why I stalled in doing this posting. Why? Because one commodity poked its head far above its down-trend today: platinum. As you may know, it is both a precious and industrial metal. As fate would have it, two of my systems signaled a "buy" signal for platinum (however, we will only track one here in the BLOG).
If the behavior of the other markets are indicative of the future, the platinum buy will turn out to be wrong. However, it is possible (but unlikely) that platinum will usher in an overall change in direction. Or, it could do its own ralley in the midst of other markets falling (also unlikely). The signal gave 27 wins out of 31 trades, for 87% historically. The average number of days in the market was 21, or about a calendar month. However, some trades were as short as 2 days. Those were mostly the losers.
No one likes to be wrong, so I stalled tonight before writing this POST. In any event, you win some, and you lose some! The symbol for Platinum is PLJ10, and there are two ETFs: PGM and PTM. I'll track PGM for you. Be cautious with either; average daily volume is in the 60-70,000 range.
Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.32 Last: 19.69
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 141.31 Last: 139.22
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
The markets were mostly up today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 100 points, and that is a big day, even at today's levels. The other major stock market indices were up. The metals were up, energy was up, and foods were up. The foreign currency markets were mostly up, and the U.S. Dollar was down. This is within the context of the U.S. Dollar having mostly risen in the past several weeks. Graphically, the trends of the past few weeks are still in place, so one could label today's activity a "contra-trend" movement.
Or is it? Well, this is why I stalled in doing this posting. Why? Because one commodity poked its head far above its down-trend today: platinum. As you may know, it is both a precious and industrial metal. As fate would have it, two of my systems signaled a "buy" signal for platinum (however, we will only track one here in the BLOG).
If the behavior of the other markets are indicative of the future, the platinum buy will turn out to be wrong. However, it is possible (but unlikely) that platinum will usher in an overall change in direction. Or, it could do its own ralley in the midst of other markets falling (also unlikely). The signal gave 27 wins out of 31 trades, for 87% historically. The average number of days in the market was 21, or about a calendar month. However, some trades were as short as 2 days. Those were mostly the losers.
No one likes to be wrong, so I stalled tonight before writing this POST. In any event, you win some, and you lose some! The symbol for Platinum is PLJ10, and there are two ETFs: PGM and PTM. I'll track PGM for you. Be cautious with either; average daily volume is in the 60-70,000 range.
Short Euro ETF EOU: Entry Price 18.49 Stop: 19.32 Last: 19.69
Short Euro EUH10: Entry Price: 144.97 Stop: 141.31 Last: 139.22
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
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