Are we in the beginning of a Recovery?

No one can predict the future reliably.  Economists tend to follow the trend, and so they aren't very good at taking a radical stand about what the numbers will be.

However, there is one pretty good indicator over the years.  The stock market generally moves about 9 months ahead of economic statistics, whether good or bad.  Is it right all of the time?  No, certainly not.  And does it predict magnitude?  No.  But it does predict direction.  LOOK at these charts of the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq futures:

Pretty nice rallies eh?  Straight up as it were.  Are they telling us something about the next 9 months?  We know that Election Years are usually good for the stock market.  This is simply food for thought.


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