We entered a "dry spell" for the month of May. The major stock market indices collapsed during the month of May. We were mostly out of the market, though we were briefly short and briefly long. However, we avoided the collapse.
Today, our coffee position rose 4.6%! As previously noted, this was the first time this year that the BLOG has taken a position in coffee. The ETF for coffee rose 6.2% in one day! Also, remember that I said emotionally I was somewhat afraid to buy coffee after its recent sharp rise. I was wrong; the computer programs were right.
The Russell 2000 rose 1.9% today! Take note that this is 2000 stocks, so this indicates a very broad market advance. Remember what I had to say about this signal: I said that it was scary and to beware! I even gave reasons for my feelings about the market.
Finally, cotton rose .2%, which is respectable for a one-day move. Here is a summary of our portfolio positions:
PORTFOLIO Symbol Entry Close Stop Profit Days
Long Russell TFM10 634.10 662.80 649.40 2870 7
Long Russell IWM 63.29 66.99 65.64 5.8% 7
Long Cotton CTZ10 79.31 79.62 74.71 155 5
Long Cotton BAL 38.51 38.80 36.41 0.8% 5
Long Coffee KCU10 146.10 159.95 150.25 5193.75 2
Long Coffee JO 40.45 43.75 41.10 8.2% 2
There are two new contradictory signals for tomorrow: sell short the Canadian Dollar and buy the New Zealand Dollar. One indicates U.S. Dollar strength, and one indicates U.S. Dollar weakness. Can they both be right? Yes, it is possible, but not probable.
Canadian Dollar symbols are CDU10 and FXC. Note that the ETF is a long fund, not a short fund (please write to me if you have questions about this.) The track record is 11 wins out of 11 trades for a 100% win-ratio. While this is phenomenal, it is not credible statistically.
New Zealand Dollar symbols are NE1U10 and BNZ. The ETF is thinly traded. The track record for the system is 27 wins out of 35 trades for 77%.
Good luck, and please write to me at the address below if you have any questions.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Our purpose is to quantitatively analyze markets to identify trends and over-bought/over-sold situations. We use computer programs applied to large amounts of data and trade markets by mathematical algorithms. We track these algorithmically-generated trades with ETFs and Futures. This BLOG is provided free of charge. Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
Historical Returns
The following represents the BLOG's 2010 ETF returns vis-a-vis other benchmark investment measures:
------------$Initial-----%Growth----$Return-----$Result
BLOG-----$100,000----26.6%-----$26,646-----$126,646
S&P 500--$100,000----12.8%-----$12,783------$112,783
1.5% CD--$100,000-----1.5%----- $1,500-----$101,500
S&P result excludes dividends.
Return on one Futures Contract: $137,684 (roughly margin of $25,000 to $50,000).
Please see the BLOG page on "Shortcomings and Limitations."
------------$Initial-----%Growth----$Return-----$Result
BLOG-----$100,000----26.6%-----$26,646-----$126,646
S&P 500--$100,000----12.8%-----$12,783------$112,783
1.5% CD--$100,000-----1.5%----- $1,500-----$101,500
S&P result excludes dividends.
Return on one Futures Contract: $137,684 (roughly margin of $25,000 to $50,000).
Please see the BLOG page on "Shortcomings and Limitations."
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