Our positions moved up strongly today, led by Cotton up 1.2%, and Crude Oil up 1.0%. The loser for us was the Russell 2000, which was down .9%. Overall, the programmed portfolio gained ground.
There were two postions closed out today: short Euro Currency and Long Gold. Both had gains; the short Euro (long the U.S. Dollar) made 3.5% over a 16-day period. We are now "flat" the Euro, but long the Aussie and the British Pound (short the U.S. Dollar). Being long the Pound is counter-intuative to me, since the British Economy seems to be in worse shape than the U.S. However, these signals are computer-generated, and may indicate that the Pound has been over-sold on a short-term basis.
There are no new signals for tomorrow.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit Days
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.55 $5,105 56
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.78 38.82 14.1% 56
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 677.10 $6,860 44
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.21 67.80 10.0% 44
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1572.10 1646.90 $5,600 35
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 349.90 355.35 $3,550 3
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.56 48.30 1.7% 3
Long Aussie ADM10 90.90 89.35 91.00 $100 2
Long Aussie FXA 92.24 90.37 92.04 -0.2% 2
Long British BPM10 149.75 150.31 151.78 $1,269 2
Long British FXB 150.46 149.84 151.31 0.6% 2
Long Crude Oil CLJ10 82.50 83.02 83.76 $1,260 2
Long Crude Oil OIL 26.38 26.42 26.66 1.1% 2
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days In Out
Long Gold GCM10 1110.60 1114.90 430.00 2 3/30/10 3/31/10
Long Gold GLD 108.57 108.87 0.3% 2 3/30/10 3/31/10
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 1650.00 16 3/16/10 3/31/10
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.90 3.5% 16 3/16/10 3/31/10
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday Overnight Action
As was mentioned yesterday, our stops are calculated constantly, and overnight, the stops on crude oil, gold, and others have moved up. The table of open positions is shown below for your convenience:
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.80
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.40
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1571.30
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.90
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 349.90
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.85
Long Aussie ADM10 90.90 89.35
Long Aussie FXA 92.24 90.20
Long British BPM10 149.75 150.26
Long British FXB 150.46 149.78
Long Crude Oil CLJ10 82.50 82.99
Long Crude Oil OIL 26.38 26.60
Long Gold GCM10 1110.60 1114.90
Long Gold GLD 108.57 108.87
Canadian Dollar was again stopped out overnight entry: 98.05 exit 98.31, so that the ETF position was not technically triggered .
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Have a great day!
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.80
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.40
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1571.30
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.90
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 349.90
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.85
Long Aussie ADM10 90.90 89.35
Long Aussie FXA 92.24 90.20
Long British BPM10 149.75 150.26
Long British FXB 150.46 149.78
Long Crude Oil CLJ10 82.50 82.99
Long Crude Oil OIL 26.38 26.60
Long Gold GCM10 1110.60 1114.90
Long Gold GLD 108.57 108.87
Canadian Dollar was again stopped out overnight entry: 98.05 exit 98.31, so that the ETF position was not technically triggered .
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Have a great day!
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Some Anomalous Results...
From time to time we get some anomalous results, and today is one of those times. Our programs were constructed based upon futures prices, and those markets often trade 23 hours per day, 5 days per week. The ETFs trade over a shorter time frame. So, one of last night's new trades is ahead on the ETF and behind on the future, and 2 are ahead on the future and behind on the ETF. In any event, the reason is the timing differences between the markets. Over time, for those signals that last, the results will converge.
The same phenomenon caused four of last night's signals to be stopped out overnight. The stops the computer generates are calculated dynamically 24 hours a day. Therefore, those four signals technically never generated an ETF position. Those closed positions are shown in the table below.
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
CDM10 97.93 98.13 200.00 1
ECM10 134.76 134.88 150.00 1
SFM10 94.16 94.30 175.00 1
SIK10 17.39 17.43 200.00 1
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 79.54 $4,600 55
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.80 38.35 12.7% 55
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 681.00 $7,250 43
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.40 68.39 10.9% 43
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1571.30 1626.10 $4,560 34
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 134.14 $3,300 15
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.90 21.11 4.5% 15
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 349.90 353.55 $3,100 2
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.85 48.35 1.8% 2
Long Aussie ADM10 90.90 89.35 91.17 $270 1
Long Aussie FXA 92.24 90.20 92.04 -0.2% 1
Long British BPM10 149.75 146.63 150.64 $556 1
Long British FXB 150.46 146.16 150.16 -0.2% 1
Long Crude Oil CLJ10 82.50 81.00 82.37 -$130 1
Long Crude Oil OIL 26.38 25.96 26.40 0.1% 1
Long Gold GCM10 1110.60 1088.20 1105.70 -$490 1
Long Gold GLD 108.57 106.26 107.97 -0.6% 1
There is one new signal for tomorrow: buy the Canadian Dollar, with symbols CDM10 and FXC. It is the same signal that was stopped out last night; its record is now 35 wins for 35 trades. The average time in the position was 12 trading days, or a little over two weeks. The data spans the period from 2/1/2000 to 3/30/2010.
The same phenomenon caused four of last night's signals to be stopped out overnight. The stops the computer generates are calculated dynamically 24 hours a day. Therefore, those four signals technically never generated an ETF position. Those closed positions are shown in the table below.
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
CDM10 97.93 98.13 200.00 1
ECM10 134.76 134.88 150.00 1
SFM10 94.16 94.30 175.00 1
SIK10 17.39 17.43 200.00 1
The remainder of the new signals are shown in the table below, along with the existing program-generated positions.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit Days
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 79.54 $4,600 55
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.80 38.35 12.7% 55
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 681.00 $7,250 43
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.40 68.39 10.9% 43
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1571.30 1626.10 $4,560 34
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 134.14 $3,300 15
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.90 21.11 4.5% 15
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 349.90 353.55 $3,100 2
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.85 48.35 1.8% 2
Long Aussie ADM10 90.90 89.35 91.17 $270 1
Long Aussie FXA 92.24 90.20 92.04 -0.2% 1
Long British BPM10 149.75 146.63 150.64 $556 1
Long British FXB 150.46 146.16 150.16 -0.2% 1
Long Crude Oil CLJ10 82.50 81.00 82.37 -$130 1
Long Crude Oil OIL 26.38 25.96 26.40 0.1% 1
Long Gold GCM10 1110.60 1088.20 1105.70 -$490 1
Long Gold GLD 108.57 106.26 107.97 -0.6% 1
There is one new signal for tomorrow: buy the Canadian Dollar, with symbols CDM10 and FXC. It is the same signal that was stopped out last night; its record is now 35 wins for 35 trades. The average time in the position was 12 trading days, or a little over two weeks. The data spans the period from 2/1/2000 to 3/30/2010.
With so many positions, we'll need to modify the methodology for calculating the BLOG's rate of return, so the quarter-end results will be delayed a few days. If you wish to see how the return was calculated, look at the post for March 9. Three readers of the BLOG gave great input on methodology.
I very much appreciate the emails that I have received; the input has been excellent.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Monday, March 29, 2010
A Plethora of Signals
Good afternoon. There is much to be covered this afternoon. First, there were no positions exited today. The new position, Copper, soared upward all day long for a huge gain.
There are a plethora of new signals for tomorrow. They are all highly correlated, so it is not prudent to follow all of them. I will have to decide how to track the results later this week. Before I give you the new signals, let me list the portfolio we have so far. We still have some very good gains on all the positions.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit Days
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.43 $5,045 54
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.85 38.83 14.1% 54
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 680.70 $7,220 42
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.23 68.18 10.6% 42
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1627.90 $4,650 33
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 134.80 $2,475 14
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.81 20.91 3.5% 14
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 348.85 353.55 $3,100 1
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.47 48.11 1.3% 1
All the new signals that appear below are to go long. What follows is the market, the symbols (future and ETF), and historical track record for each system. There are a total of 8! This is a new single day record for the BLOG.
Aussie Dollar, ADM10, FXA, 36/38=95%
British Pound, BPM10, FXB, 57/73=78%
Canadian Dollar, CDM10, FXC, 34/34=100%
Euro Currency, ECM10, FXE, 60/74=81%
Swiss Franc, SFM10, FXF, 28/32=88%
Crude Oil, CLK10, OIL, 28/38=74%
Gold, GCM10, GLD, 59/70=84%
Silver, SIK10, SLV, 90/105=86%
There are a plethora of new signals for tomorrow. They are all highly correlated, so it is not prudent to follow all of them. I will have to decide how to track the results later this week. Before I give you the new signals, let me list the portfolio we have so far. We still have some very good gains on all the positions.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit Days
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.43 $5,045 54
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.85 38.83 14.1% 54
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 680.70 $7,220 42
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.23 68.18 10.6% 42
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1627.90 $4,650 33
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 134.80 $2,475 14
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.81 20.91 3.5% 14
Long Copper HGK10 341.15 348.85 353.55 $3,100 1
Long Copper JJC 47.49 47.47 48.11 1.3% 1
All the new signals that appear below are to go long. What follows is the market, the symbols (future and ETF), and historical track record for each system. There are a total of 8! This is a new single day record for the BLOG.
Aussie Dollar, ADM10, FXA, 36/38=95%
British Pound, BPM10, FXB, 57/73=78%
Canadian Dollar, CDM10, FXC, 34/34=100%
Euro Currency, ECM10, FXE, 60/74=81%
Swiss Franc, SFM10, FXF, 28/32=88%
Crude Oil, CLK10, OIL, 28/38=74%
Gold, GCM10, GLD, 59/70=84%
Silver, SIK10, SLV, 90/105=86%
At the very least, I am going to exit my short Euro position, since it is contrary to all of these signals in its direction. Besides, the long and short Euro cancel each other out. I am going to leave it at this for now.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Last Week of March Begins
Good Evening! It's the last Sunday Evening in March, and we are updating you on our computer-generated portfolio. We are currently long Cotton since 2/4, long the Russell 2000 since 2/16, long Platinum since 2/25, and short the Euro since 3/16. These positions all have nice gains. The details are shown in the table below:
Position Symbol Entry Stop Last Profit Days In
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.18 $4,920 53
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.66 38.51 13.2% 53
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 676.20 $6,770 41
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.33 67.84 10.0% 41
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1604.00 $3,455 32
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 132.71 $5,087 13
Short Euro EUO 20.20 21.10 21.54 6.6% 13
There is one new signal for Monday: buy Copper. However, I must warn that Copper opened over-seas this evening. It is already up 6 cents, which is a huge move (2%). Also, a trailing stop has kicked in. Therefore, it may not be a viable buy on Monday morning for the ETFs. I will try and let you know if it gets stopped out overnight. The record on the Copper system is 82 wins out of 100 trades for 82%.
There was a short period in which we had a simultaneous signal to short the Russell; it made money and closed out on Friday. The results are shown below.
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 678.40 240.00 4
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 29.88 0.9% 4
The Russell stop came about intra-day on Friday. Unfortunately, I don't yet have intra-day update capacity for the BLOG yet. However, I am working on it.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Position Symbol Entry Stop Last Profit Days In
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.18 $4,920 53
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.66 38.51 13.2% 53
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 676.20 $6,770 41
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.33 67.84 10.0% 41
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1604.00 $3,455 32
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 132.71 $5,087 13
Short Euro EUO 20.20 21.10 21.54 6.6% 13
There is one new signal for Monday: buy Copper. However, I must warn that Copper opened over-seas this evening. It is already up 6 cents, which is a huge move (2%). Also, a trailing stop has kicked in. Therefore, it may not be a viable buy on Monday morning for the ETFs. I will try and let you know if it gets stopped out overnight. The record on the Copper system is 82 wins out of 100 trades for 82%.
There was a short period in which we had a simultaneous signal to short the Russell; it made money and closed out on Friday. The results are shown below.
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 678.40 240.00 4
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 29.88 0.9% 4
The Russell stop came about intra-day on Friday. Unfortunately, I don't yet have intra-day update capacity for the BLOG yet. However, I am working on it.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Jimmy Rogers on World Markets
My hero, Jimmy Rogers, talks about his perceptions of current world markets on CNBC.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Markets Mixed Today--Euro and Russell Fall
Today was a roller-coaster for the markets. We did nicely on the short Russell and the short Euro, in addition to Platinum.
There were no positions closed out, nor are there any new computer-generated signals for tomorrow. I show the open positions below, with the entry dates shown for reminders of when the BLOG entered the positions.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit Days In
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.18 $4,920 50 2/4/10
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.66 38.51 13.2% 50 2/4/10
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 676.20 $6,770 38 2/16/10
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.33 67.84 10.0% 38 2/16/10
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1604.00 $3,455 29 2/25/10
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 132.71 $5,087 10 3/16/10
Short Euro EUO 20.20 21.10 21.54 6.6% 10 3/16/10
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 704.80 676.20 $460 3 3/23/10
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 28.76 29.98 1.2% 3 3/23/10
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
There were no positions closed out, nor are there any new computer-generated signals for tomorrow. I show the open positions below, with the entry dates shown for reminders of when the BLOG entered the positions.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit Days In
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.18 $4,920 50 2/4/10
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.66 38.51 13.2% 50 2/4/10
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 651.20 676.20 $6,770 38 2/16/10
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.33 67.84 10.0% 38 2/16/10
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1604.00 $3,455 29 2/25/10
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.46 132.71 $5,087 10 3/16/10
Short Euro EUO 20.20 21.10 21.54 6.6% 10 3/16/10
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 704.80 676.20 $460 3 3/23/10
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 28.76 29.98 1.2% 3 3/23/10
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
All Markets Down
Most of the markets we track were down today, owing to the strength of the U.S. Dollar. We do not have very many outstanding postions right now. Our overall postions were up slightly today. There were no new signals and no positions closed out today.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 81.41 $5,535
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.78 39.23 15.3%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 648.60 687.60 $7,910
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.40 68.27 10.7%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1587.90 $2,650
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.92 133.13 $4,563
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.97 21.41 6.0%
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 704.80 689.60 -$880
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 28.89 29.53 -0.3%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 81.41 $5,535
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.78 39.23 15.3%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 648.60 687.60 $7,910
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.40 68.27 10.7%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1587.90 $2,650
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 135.92 133.13 $4,563
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.97 21.41 6.0%
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 704.80 689.60 -$880
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 28.89 29.53 -0.3%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
List of Open Positions Narrows
Stocks rallied today, carrying them to new recovery highs. Our Japanese Yen position was stopped out, much to my dismay. I thought that it might be a long-term winner, but we got out for a small gain as indicated below.
Our active portfolio of computer-generated positions is getting shorter. Note: yesterday we got a signal to short the Russell 2000; however, our buy signal is independently still in effect. So, one could be neutral, or ignore the short signal, or only honor the short signal (since it is the "freshest"). I don't normally entertain contradictory signals such as these, but at least for now, this is what the programming has yielded. Do with it what you will, with the usual caveats applicable below.
On March 9, we extrapolated the annual rate of return for the BLOG at 35%. Based upon the extensive list of assumptions shown there, we can calculate that same number for today, and it is slightly over 30%. Obviously, the last several days of trading have seen some losses. As we pointed out on March 9, this was not unexpected. We will give a more extensive update at the end of the quarter.
All the best to you; see you tomorrow. And I almost forgot to mention, there are no new signals for tomorrow.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.89 $6,275
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.66 39.82 17.0%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 648.60 687.60 $7,910
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.30 69.23 12.3%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1608.50 $3,680
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.34 135.00 $2,225
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.65 20.85 3.2%
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 704.80 689.60 -$880
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 28.31 28.93 -2.3%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Yen JYM10 110.71 110.85 175.00
Long Yen FXY 109.40 109.83 0.4%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Our active portfolio of computer-generated positions is getting shorter. Note: yesterday we got a signal to short the Russell 2000; however, our buy signal is independently still in effect. So, one could be neutral, or ignore the short signal, or only honor the short signal (since it is the "freshest"). I don't normally entertain contradictory signals such as these, but at least for now, this is what the programming has yielded. Do with it what you will, with the usual caveats applicable below.
On March 9, we extrapolated the annual rate of return for the BLOG at 35%. Based upon the extensive list of assumptions shown there, we can calculate that same number for today, and it is slightly over 30%. Obviously, the last several days of trading have seen some losses. As we pointed out on March 9, this was not unexpected. We will give a more extensive update at the end of the quarter.
All the best to you; see you tomorrow. And I almost forgot to mention, there are no new signals for tomorrow.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.89 $6,275
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.66 39.82 17.0%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 648.60 687.60 $7,910
Long Russell IWM 61.66 65.30 69.23 12.3%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1608.50 $3,680
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.34 135.00 $2,225
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.65 20.85 3.2%
Short Russell TFM10 680.80 704.80 689.60 -$880
Short Russell RRZ 29.62 28.31 28.93 -2.3%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Yen JYM10 110.71 110.85 175.00
Long Yen FXY 109.40 109.83 0.4%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Monday, Monday
So sang the "Mamas and the Papas." Remember that rock group?
Good evening!
Today gave us many closed out positions via computer-generated stops. Those closed-out positions are shown below.
The open positions are also below. Note that Platinum futures are still active, while Platinum ETF is out. This is clearly an anamoly.
The Russell ETF is up 10.9% since 2/16. Obviously, this was a good time to get in. This kind of gain would be great for a year, let alone a month. However, I must tell you that the same computer system that generated this buy, has now generated a sell signal for tomorrow. It doesn't seem intuative. Most market gurus that I have read, say follow the trend, and the trend is up. So, take it for what it's worth. It is another signal generated by the computer. Sell short the Russell 2000. Please note the caveats below. This is not a recommendation--it is just a mathematical result. You should consider this in light of the council of a professional.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.49 $6,075
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.75 39.72 16.8%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 644.70 680.00 $7,150
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.81 68.36 10.9%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1601.30 $3,320
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.35 135.61 $1,462
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.55 20.66 2.3%
Long Yen JYM10 110.71 110.85 111.03 $400
Long Yen FXY 109.40 109.83 110.01 0.6%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Short Silver SIK10 17.01 16.86 750.00
Short Silver ZSL 4.51 4.36 -3.3%
Long Sugar SBK10 18.70 18.04 -739.20
Long Gold GCJ10 1124.50 1099.50 -2500.00
Long Gold GLD 110.10 107.53 -2.3%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 90.05 $490
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.11 0.9%
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.61 1.1%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Good evening!
Today gave us many closed out positions via computer-generated stops. Those closed-out positions are shown below.
The open positions are also below. Note that Platinum futures are still active, while Platinum ETF is out. This is clearly an anamoly.
The Russell ETF is up 10.9% since 2/16. Obviously, this was a good time to get in. This kind of gain would be great for a year, let alone a month. However, I must tell you that the same computer system that generated this buy, has now generated a sell signal for tomorrow. It doesn't seem intuative. Most market gurus that I have read, say follow the trend, and the trend is up. So, take it for what it's worth. It is another signal generated by the computer. Sell short the Russell 2000. Please note the caveats below. This is not a recommendation--it is just a mathematical result. You should consider this in light of the council of a professional.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.49 $6,075
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.75 39.72 16.8%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 644.70 680.00 $7,150
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.81 68.36 10.9%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1601.30 $3,320
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.35 135.61 $1,462
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.55 20.66 2.3%
Long Yen JYM10 110.71 110.85 111.03 $400
Long Yen FXY 109.40 109.83 110.01 0.6%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Short Silver SIK10 17.01 16.86 750.00
Short Silver ZSL 4.51 4.36 -3.3%
Long Sugar SBK10 18.70 18.04 -739.20
Long Gold GCJ10 1124.50 1099.50 -2500.00
Long Gold GLD 110.10 107.53 -2.3%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 90.05 $490
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.11 0.9%
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.61 1.1%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Friday, March 19, 2010
The Dollar Is Strong on News of the Health Care Bill
Yes, this is not a typo. The dollar rose strongly today against all the major currencies on the strong likelihood of the Health Care Bill being passed this Sunday. Why? Because the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a "neutral" party that estimates the cost impacts of legislation in Washington, said that the Bill will positively impact the U.S. deficit. Again, why? So far as I can determine, based upon various sources, there are some things in the Bill that are financially positive:
1) higher taxes offsetting the benefits in the plan
2) stricter controls on medical tests performed by Doctors
3) Federal takeover of the Student Loan Program (yes, the Health Care Bill has Student Loans in it too)
The Dollar gained tremendous ground on the prospect of passage. As a result, most commodities fell, and the stock markets fell as well. Ironically, medical stocks were generally up. I am not sure why.
Our portfolio generally fell. The only position gaining ground was the short Euro (long Dollar). There were no positions closed out on the day. The listing of all open positions appears below.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.01 $5,835
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.88 39.62 16.5%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 644.70 670.10 $6,160
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.85 67.41 9.3%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1608.00 $3,655
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.61 19.14 4.0%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 90.05 90.70 $1,120
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.11 91.77 1.6%
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.43 135.29 $1,863
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.54 20.71 2.5%
Long Gold GCJ10 1124.50 1099.50 1107.20 -$1,730
Long Gold GLD 110.10 107.53 108.28 -1.7%
Long Yen JYM10 110.71 109.51 110.48 -$287
Long Yen FXY 109.40 108.58 109.54 0.1%
For Monday, there are two new signals: buy Sugar, and sell short silver. Note: we are long Gold and Platinum, so this is a contrary signal. Also, buying Sugar is scary because it has been in a protracted decline. In any event, the system thinks sugar is over-sold.
For silver, the symbols are SIK10 and ZSL. The record is 11 wins out of 11 trades for 100%. For Sugar, the symbols are SBK10 and SGG. The record is 34 wins out of 43 trades for 79%. Good luck to all.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
1) higher taxes offsetting the benefits in the plan
2) stricter controls on medical tests performed by Doctors
3) Federal takeover of the Student Loan Program (yes, the Health Care Bill has Student Loans in it too)
The Dollar gained tremendous ground on the prospect of passage. As a result, most commodities fell, and the stock markets fell as well. Ironically, medical stocks were generally up. I am not sure why.
Our portfolio generally fell. The only position gaining ground was the short Euro (long Dollar). There were no positions closed out on the day. The listing of all open positions appears below.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.01 $5,835
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.88 39.62 16.5%
Long Russell TFM10 608.50 644.70 670.10 $6,160
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.85 67.41 9.3%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1608.00 $3,655
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.61 19.14 4.0%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 90.05 90.70 $1,120
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.11 91.77 1.6%
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.43 135.29 $1,863
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.54 20.71 2.5%
Long Gold GCJ10 1124.50 1099.50 1107.20 -$1,730
Long Gold GLD 110.10 107.53 108.28 -1.7%
Long Yen JYM10 110.71 109.51 110.48 -$287
Long Yen FXY 109.40 108.58 109.54 0.1%
For Monday, there are two new signals: buy Sugar, and sell short silver. Note: we are long Gold and Platinum, so this is a contrary signal. Also, buying Sugar is scary because it has been in a protracted decline. In any event, the system thinks sugar is over-sold.
For silver, the symbols are SIK10 and ZSL. The record is 11 wins out of 11 trades for 100%. For Sugar, the symbols are SBK10 and SGG. The record is 34 wins out of 43 trades for 79%. Good luck to all.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Euro Falls Hard Against the U.S. Dollar
Our big winner today was short the Euro ETF, up 2%. Also, Cotton was up 1%. The computer-generated portfolio is shown below. We were stopped out of Cocoa, the Yen, Gold and Silver with profits (only Cocoa was an ETF position), and stopped out of Copper for a minor loss on the ETF. For tomorrow, we have another signal on the Japanese Yen, ETF FXY. However, bear in mind that the last one was stopped out with a small gain overnight, so never materialized into an ETF signal. The results in the table below look very good as we are over half way through March. All of the existing positions are in positive territory.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.21 $5,935
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.77 39.61 16.4%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 644.70 678.40 $6,740
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.87 68.26 10.7%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1631.00 $4,805
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.69 19.50 6.0%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 90.05 91.22 $1,640
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.12 92.30 2.2%
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.60 136.08 $875
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.44 20.52 1.6%
Long Gold GCJ10 1124.50 1099.50 1127.50 $300
Long Gold GLD 110.10 107.60 110.34 0.2%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Copper HGK10 342.45 337.85 -1150.00
Long Copper JJC 46.18 45.95 -0.5%
Long Japanese Yen JYM10 110.76 110.80 50.00
Long Cocoa CCK10 2857.00 2898.00 410.00
Long Cocoa NIB 41.76 43.16 3.4%
Long Gold GCJ10 1126.30 1128.50 $220
Long Silver SIK10 17.45 17.51 $300
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 82.21 $5,935
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.77 39.61 16.4%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 644.70 678.40 $6,740
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.87 68.26 10.7%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1631.00 $4,805
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.69 19.50 6.0%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 90.05 91.22 $1,640
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.12 92.30 2.2%
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 136.60 136.08 $875
Short Euro EUO 20.20 20.44 20.52 1.6%
Long Gold GCJ10 1124.50 1099.50 1127.50 $300
Long Gold GLD 110.10 107.60 110.34 0.2%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Copper HGK10 342.45 337.85 -1150.00
Long Copper JJC 46.18 45.95 -0.5%
Long Japanese Yen JYM10 110.76 110.80 50.00
Long Cocoa CCK10 2857.00 2898.00 410.00
Long Cocoa NIB 41.76 43.16 3.4%
Long Gold GCJ10 1126.30 1128.50 $220
Long Silver SIK10 17.45 17.51 $300
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
A Record Gain in One Position for the Day
I believe that we set a record for a single position gain for the day: the Cocoa ETF was up 2.63%. Our Russell, Euro and Aussie all gained about .5%. The biggest loser for the day was cotton, with a loss of .75%. However, taken together, our computer-generated portfolio gained on the day.
As you can see from the table below, Cotton is up 15%, the Russell 2000 up 11%, and Platinum is up 5.8%. These are nice gains, and have increased the portfolio's value since the update on return from last week.
Now, for the difficult part to explain. We had computer-generated buy signals on both gold and silver. Both positions got stopped out on the futures overnight, therefore, for ETF purposes we should not track them in the BLOG. However, if one had entered silver on the open of the ETF, it would be slightly up on the day. If one had entered gold on the open, one would be slightly down. However, we received another buy signal on gold for tomorrow. Same win ratio as quoted in the last BLOG, except with one more win. Questions or comments? Please email me and I'll try and respond as soon as I can.
Also for tomorrow, new signals to buy copper (not always correlated with the precious metals), with a win ratio of 81/99 =82%. The futures symbol is HGK10, and ETF is JJC. Buy the Japanese Yen is also another new signal. I saw an analyst on Bloomberg today that said that Japan is finally in a good place economically, and is finally in a better spot than the U.S. to grow. The system generated 25 wins out of 26 trades for 92%. Finally, a signal to buy the New Zealand Dollar. This system has 27 wins out of 32 trades. Since New Zealand and Australia have very similar economies, I regard this as a redundant signal with the Aussie Dollar, and have a mind not to track it in the BLOG. Note: the Japanese Yen was stopped out overnight.
As you can see from the table below, Cotton is up 15%, the Russell 2000 up 11%, and Platinum is up 5.8%. These are nice gains, and have increased the portfolio's value since the update on return from last week.
Now, for the difficult part to explain. We had computer-generated buy signals on both gold and silver. Both positions got stopped out on the futures overnight, therefore, for ETF purposes we should not track them in the BLOG. However, if one had entered silver on the open of the ETF, it would be slightly up on the day. If one had entered gold on the open, one would be slightly down. However, we received another buy signal on gold for tomorrow. Same win ratio as quoted in the last BLOG, except with one more win. Questions or comments? Please email me and I'll try and respond as soon as I can.
Also for tomorrow, new signals to buy copper (not always correlated with the precious metals), with a win ratio of 81/99 =82%. The futures symbol is HGK10, and ETF is JJC. Buy the Japanese Yen is also another new signal. I saw an analyst on Bloomberg today that said that Japan is finally in a good place economically, and is finally in a better spot than the U.S. to grow. The system generated 25 wins out of 26 trades for 92%. Finally, a signal to buy the New Zealand Dollar. This system has 27 wins out of 32 trades. Since New Zealand and Australia have very similar economies, I regard this as a redundant signal with the Aussie Dollar, and have a mind not to track it in the BLOG. Note: the Japanese Yen was stopped out overnight.
The full table of our computer-generated portfolio appears below. It is in pretty good shape.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 81.17 $5,415
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.79 39.13 15.0%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 644.70 680.30 $6,930
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.89 68.47 11.0%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1563.30 1635.60 $5,035
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.60 19.46 5.8%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 90.05 91.48 $1,900
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 90.99 92.44 2.4%
Long Cocoa CCK10 2857.00 2890.00 2905.00 $480
Long Cocoa NIB 41.76 43.03 43.25 3.6%
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 138.38 137.36 -$725
Short Euro EUO 20.20 19.95 20.10 -0.5%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
New Signal to Buy Gold--Existing Positions Gain Ground
Today's action was robust. Looking at the Dow, the day was lackluster, but Cotton was up 1.4%, the Russell 2000 was up .9%, Platinum was up 1%, Cocoa and Aussie were up .5%, and the Euro was up 1%. Since we were long all of these except short the Euro, our computer-generated portfolio rose in value.
I know many of you believe that the long-term direction of Gold is up. Today I got 3 computer signals to buy Gold, and one to buy Silver. The BLOG will track the best Gold signal, which has a historical record of 24 wins out of 26 trades for a winning ratio of 92%. The silver system has a record of 84 wins out of 99 trades for a winning ratio of 85%. The average number of days in the market for the silver system is 4 whereas it is 16 for the Gold system. Therefore, two comments need to be made:
1) The Gold system represents a more long-term signal
2) Our platinum system is already long; gold and silver are positively correlated to platinum, therefore, there is contagion risk here.
The ETF signals are GLD and SLV. If any of you have any recommendations in this regard, please publish a comment for the benefit of all.
If you have any questions, post a comment to the BLOG, or email me at bassanalytics@live.com.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 81.84 $5,750
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.76 39.42 15.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 637.20 677.10 $6,610
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.06 68.07 10.4%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1561.10 1635.00 $5,005
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.64 19.52 6.1%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 89.91 90.96 $1,380
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 90.91 91.97 1.8%
Long Cocoa CCK10 2857.00 2667.00 2848.00 -$90
Long Cocoa NIB 41.76 39.46 42.14 0.9%
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 138.38 137.64 -$1,075
Short Euro EUO 20.20 19.88 19.99 -1.0%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
I know many of you believe that the long-term direction of Gold is up. Today I got 3 computer signals to buy Gold, and one to buy Silver. The BLOG will track the best Gold signal, which has a historical record of 24 wins out of 26 trades for a winning ratio of 92%. The silver system has a record of 84 wins out of 99 trades for a winning ratio of 85%. The average number of days in the market for the silver system is 4 whereas it is 16 for the Gold system. Therefore, two comments need to be made:
1) The Gold system represents a more long-term signal
2) Our platinum system is already long; gold and silver are positively correlated to platinum, therefore, there is contagion risk here.
The ETF signals are GLD and SLV. If any of you have any recommendations in this regard, please publish a comment for the benefit of all.
If you have any questions, post a comment to the BLOG, or email me at bassanalytics@live.com.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 81.84 $5,750
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.76 39.42 15.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 637.20 677.10 $6,610
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.06 68.07 10.4%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1561.10 1635.00 $5,005
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.64 19.52 6.1%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 89.91 90.96 $1,380
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 90.91 91.97 1.8%
Long Cocoa CCK10 2857.00 2667.00 2848.00 -$90
Long Cocoa NIB 41.76 39.46 42.14 0.9%
Short Euro ECM10 136.78 138.38 137.64 -$1,075
Short Euro EUO 20.20 19.88 19.99 -1.0%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Signals for Tuesday--Revised
All of the current positions for the BLOG are positive! Overall, the systems have generated some respectable results for the year. On the day, Cotton and Platinum were up, while the Aussie Dollar and the Russell 2000 were down slightly.
Before I get into the technical details of today's results, let me take a step back. The number of people reading the BLOG each day continues to increase. Some of you are very technically-oriented and like the bare numbers and results. Others find the BLOG intriguing, but have asked me for more explanation. For those of you who need supplemental information, what would be the best medium for me to help you? How about a separate email to you? If you think that would work, please let me know by emailing me at bassanalytics@live.com.
For tomorrow, we have two new signals. Buy Cocoa, futures symbol CCK10, and ETF symbol NIB. The track record for this system is 313 wins out of 391 trades, for 80%. Also, sell short the Euro Currency (or, put another way, go long the U.S. Dollar), futures symbol ECM10, and ETF symbol EUO (corrected). Note, this ETF is 2x short the Euro. Its goal is to move up when the Euro declines. It moves twice as fast as the underlying currency.
This signal is also somewhat contrary to our long Aussie position. The record on the Euro system is 9 wins out of 9 trades for 100%, so it has a very good record, while not statistically significant. However, most of the history of the Euro has been positive (an upward trend), so one wouldn't expect a history of profitable short trades.
These computer systems assume entry into the positions at the open market price.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.76 $5,210
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.72 38.86 14.2%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 637.20 671.80 $6,080
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.01 67.49 9.5%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1559.40 1615.80 $4,045
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.66 19.33 5.1%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 89.91 90.56 $980
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 90.89 91.55 1.4%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Canadian CDM 97.57 98.06 $490
Long Canadian FXC 96.76 97.75 1.0%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Before I get into the technical details of today's results, let me take a step back. The number of people reading the BLOG each day continues to increase. Some of you are very technically-oriented and like the bare numbers and results. Others find the BLOG intriguing, but have asked me for more explanation. For those of you who need supplemental information, what would be the best medium for me to help you? How about a separate email to you? If you think that would work, please let me know by emailing me at bassanalytics@live.com.
For tomorrow, we have two new signals. Buy Cocoa, futures symbol CCK10, and ETF symbol NIB. The track record for this system is 313 wins out of 391 trades, for 80%. Also, sell short the Euro Currency (or, put another way, go long the U.S. Dollar), futures symbol ECM10, and ETF symbol EUO (corrected). Note, this ETF is 2x short the Euro. Its goal is to move up when the Euro declines. It moves twice as fast as the underlying currency.
This signal is also somewhat contrary to our long Aussie position. The record on the Euro system is 9 wins out of 9 trades for 100%, so it has a very good record, while not statistically significant. However, most of the history of the Euro has been positive (an upward trend), so one wouldn't expect a history of profitable short trades.
These computer systems assume entry into the positions at the open market price.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTK10 70.34 78.40 80.76 $5,210
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.72 38.86 14.2%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 637.20 671.80 $6,080
Long Russell IWM 61.66 64.01 67.49 9.5%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1559.40 1615.80 $4,045
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.66 19.33 5.1%
Long Aussie ADM10 89.58 89.91 90.56 $980
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 90.89 91.55 1.4%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Canadian CDM 97.57 98.06 $490
Long Canadian FXC 96.76 97.75 1.0%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Signals for Monday/A Non-Technical Message
There were no signals for Monday. I am sorry for the very late post today.
Saturday we journeyed down to Mexico. The town we visited was much poorer than Tijuana. About 500 pairs of shoes were given away, and 65 pairs of eyeglasses. My admonition: be thankful that you have the wherewithall to read this BLOG. Be thankful that you can even consider investing in futures or ETFs or anything because there are parts of the world where earning even $400 per month is considered good.
There were no new signals for Monday. Listed below are our existing computer-generated positions. Also, the computer had us exit 2 positions at a profit. May you have the best of days today!
Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
CTH10 69.82 78.40 80.47 $5,325
BAL 34.02 37.97 38.97 14.6%
TFH10 611.00 637.20 674.50 $6,350
IWM 61.66 63.98 67.72 9.8%
PLJ10 1534.90 1559.40 1608.40 $3,675
PTM 18.40 18.62 19.21 4.4%
ADM10 89.58 89.91 90.60 $1,020
FXA 90.30 90.98 91.68 1.5%
CDM 97.57 98.06 98.12 $490
FXC 96.76 97.80 97.75 0.5%
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
GCJ10 1121.50 1113.10 $840 3
DGZ 19.47 19.62 0.8% 3
CCK10 2828 2847 $260 4
NIB 41.10 42.06 2.3% 4
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Saturday we journeyed down to Mexico. The town we visited was much poorer than Tijuana. About 500 pairs of shoes were given away, and 65 pairs of eyeglasses. My admonition: be thankful that you have the wherewithall to read this BLOG. Be thankful that you can even consider investing in futures or ETFs or anything because there are parts of the world where earning even $400 per month is considered good.
There were no new signals for Monday. Listed below are our existing computer-generated positions. Also, the computer had us exit 2 positions at a profit. May you have the best of days today!
Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
CTH10 69.82 78.40 80.47 $5,325
BAL 34.02 37.97 38.97 14.6%
TFH10 611.00 637.20 674.50 $6,350
IWM 61.66 63.98 67.72 9.8%
PLJ10 1534.90 1559.40 1608.40 $3,675
PTM 18.40 18.62 19.21 4.4%
ADM10 89.58 89.91 90.60 $1,020
FXA 90.30 90.98 91.68 1.5%
CDM 97.57 98.06 98.12 $490
FXC 96.76 97.80 97.75 0.5%
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
GCJ10 1121.50 1113.10 $840 3
DGZ 19.47 19.62 0.8% 3
CCK10 2828 2847 $260 4
NIB 41.10 42.06 2.3% 4
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Update for Friday
For those of you who are watching carefully intra-day: two of our positions were stopped out today with a profit:
Cocoa: 2847 future and 42.06 on the ETF
Gold: 19.62 on the ETF and 1113.10o on the future
Canadian $ ETF 97.64 future 98.05
This post will be updated this weekend with all the statistics, as usual.
Cocoa: 2847 future and 42.06 on the ETF
Gold: 19.62 on the ETF and 1113.10o on the future
Canadian $ ETF 97.64 future 98.05
This post will be updated this weekend with all the statistics, as usual.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Mixed Results Again Today
Cotton was a significant loss for the day, and Platinum was up strongly. All of our open positions are profitable. The Soybeans future position was in and out in one day, and was stopped out. There was no ETF position for Soybeans.
There are no new signals for tomorrow.
Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
CTH10 69.82 78.40 78.77 $4,475
BAL 34.02 37.71 37.89 11.4%
TFH10 611.00 634.90 674.20 $6,320
IWM 61.66 63.80 67.75 9.9%
PLJ10 1534.90 1556.50 1612.70 $3,890
PTM 18.40 18.52 19.19 4.3%
ADH10 90.47 90.79 91.49 $1,020
FXA 90.30 90.92 91.62 1.5%
CCK10 2828 2638 2854 $260
NIB 41.10 38.97 42.16 2.6%
GCJ10 1121.50 1113.10 1108.10 $1,340
DGZ 19.47 19.62 19.70 1.2%
CDH10 97.56 96.16 97.62 $60
FXC 96.76 95.76 97.21 0.5%
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
SK10 958 942 -800 1
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
There are no new signals for tomorrow.
Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
CTH10 69.82 78.40 78.77 $4,475
BAL 34.02 37.71 37.89 11.4%
TFH10 611.00 634.90 674.20 $6,320
IWM 61.66 63.80 67.75 9.9%
PLJ10 1534.90 1556.50 1612.70 $3,890
PTM 18.40 18.52 19.19 4.3%
ADH10 90.47 90.79 91.49 $1,020
FXA 90.30 90.92 91.62 1.5%
CCK10 2828 2638 2854 $260
NIB 41.10 38.97 42.16 2.6%
GCJ10 1121.50 1113.10 1108.10 $1,340
DGZ 19.47 19.62 19.70 1.2%
CDH10 97.56 96.16 97.62 $60
FXC 96.76 95.76 97.21 0.5%
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
SK10 958 942 -800 1
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Winners and Losers Today
The systems generated trades were mixed today, with a slighty upward bias. The biggest winner was short gold, which I was skeptical about, with a 1.3% gain for the day. Cocoa and the Russell 2000 were up about .9%, while Cotton fell 1.1% and Platinum .6%. As you can see from the table below, all of the system trades are up at the present time:
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.04 $6,110
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 36.61 38.31 12.6%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 633.30 674.80 $6,380
Long Russell IWM 61.66 63.40 67.55 9.6%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1556.60 1595.50 $3,030
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.40 18.86 2.5%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 90.75 91.47 $1,000
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 90.85 91.57 1.4%
Long Cocoa CCK10 2828 2638 2845 $170
Long Cocoa NIB 41.10 39.00 42.06 2.3%
Short Gold GCJ10 1121.50 1114.60 1108.70 $1,280
Short Gold DGZ 19.47 19.59 19.74 1.4%
We closed out one position, the Canadian Dollar, and the results are shown below:
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days In Out
CDH10 97.32 97.62 $263 3 3/8/10 3/10/10
FXC 97.05 97.34 0.3% 3 3/8/10 3/10/10
There are two new signals for tomorrow: buy the Canadian Dollar (again, same system, 88% win ratio) and buy Soybeans. Note, there is no ETF for Soybeans that I know of.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.04 $6,110
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 36.61 38.31 12.6%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 633.30 674.80 $6,380
Long Russell IWM 61.66 63.40 67.55 9.6%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1556.60 1595.50 $3,030
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.40 18.86 2.5%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 90.75 91.47 $1,000
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 90.85 91.57 1.4%
Long Cocoa CCK10 2828 2638 2845 $170
Long Cocoa NIB 41.10 39.00 42.06 2.3%
Short Gold GCJ10 1121.50 1114.60 1108.70 $1,280
Short Gold DGZ 19.47 19.59 19.74 1.4%
We closed out one position, the Canadian Dollar, and the results are shown below:
Symbol Entry Out Profit Days In Out
CDH10 97.32 97.62 $263 3 3/8/10 3/10/10
FXC 97.05 97.34 0.3% 3 3/8/10 3/10/10
There are two new signals for tomorrow: buy the Canadian Dollar (again, same system, 88% win ratio) and buy Soybeans. Note, there is no ETF for Soybeans that I know of.
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Special Post: Rate of Return on the BLOG
Corrected from original on 4/3/10
I have constructed my systems to generate high winning ratios when tested against large amounts of data. In so doing, I hope to capture trends as well as over-bought and over-sold situations. Our systems were tested with futures data and profitability was optimized in various ways. In the BLOG, we have applied the systems to both futures and to ETFs. The true test of computerized systems is the success rate generated in real-time.
We started publishing results in the BLOG beginning in January. We are happy with the results that have unfolded thus far. One principle used in designing the programs was to cut losses while letting the winning trades “run.” Our biggest success for 2010 is our open Cotton position ETF that is up over 16%. China is now the world’s largest consumer of Cotton, by the way, and China continues to grow economically. Our biggest closed position win was short the Euro Currency (long the U.S. Dollar), with an 11.1% ETF gain. The long dollar trade was not intuitive, at least to me. Right now, the world markets are trying to determine which currencies are the strongest against the backdrop of deficit spending in most of the developed countries. Our biggest loss was 6% on an early cotton trade, and -3.7% on a short Gold trade, which I didn’t like because of gold’s place as a possible “alternative world currency” in these troubled economic times.
Based upon the assumptions below, the return generated by all of the ETF signals in the BLOG was 3.3% for the period January 7, 2010 through March 7, 2010. (Bloomberg reported tonight that the average hedge fund earned .5% in the month of February). We’ll continue to track the return of the BLOG systems as the signals unfold. The open positions could still go up more, or decline in value as the month of March unfolds. We hope that this rate of return will continue at the current pace for the rest of the year, but make no predictions. However, if we annualize the year-to-date return using simple linear extrapolation, it becomes approximately 20%. I would consider this highly unlikely, since real world results almost never follow a straight line. But in any event, we’re off to a good start for the year. We intend to do our next update after the conclusion of the first quarter. Thanks to the three readers that inspired me to design a way of measuring the real-time success of the computer programs.
Assumptions underlying the results above:
1) The returns do not take into account commissions and other trading costs. My bank (which owns a broker) gives me 30 commission-free trades per month. You should take into account your own percentage commission and other trading costs in determining your own returns.
2) The returns do not take into account “slippage,” that is, the phenomenon that the system generated stop may not be realized in reality. The experienced stop may be better or worse than the one generated by the system.
3) On any given day, we do not know how many positions we will have. The number of active positions varies from day to day. Historically, for 2010, it has ranged between one and six, inclusive. For purposes of our calculations, we assumed 5 positions of equal amounts of money. So, for example, if you had $10,000, you would break it into five equal chunks of $2,000. When a signal comes, we assume that only $2,000 is devoted to it, then $2,000 in the next one, etc. So, for example, as much as we wish we would like to have put every dollar in cotton, we assume that only 20% was put into cotton, etc.
4) We assumed no compounding of earnings. In other words, if the portfolio rises in value to $12,000 from $10,000, we still devote only $2,000 in five chunks each time a signal is generated.
5) The yield on un-invested assets is zero. What we mean here is the return on assets not in a system. This yield is pretty realistic for brokerage houses these days. If anything, it is on the conservative side, that is, the returns we state below would be slightly higher if the assets not being used to trade were invested in something with a positive yield.
6) There are a few signals that exited overnight before the opening of the New York markets the next day. I have excluded those signals from the ETF calculation. However, there were a few that exited during the first day of New York trading, and I included those in the results. My computer systems revise their stops continuously, and so there were a few signals that could not have been followed exactly by the readers of the BLOG. Someday, I may offer the facility to send emails out when the systems generate intra-day signals.
7) The results assume that every signal was followed. You should do your own thinking and decide what risk profile you would like to employ. It is very possible that you might have fundamental issues with some of the signals. You may simply be bullish on stocks. Or you might want to be long gold no matter what. Some may wish to get out of a long position when a sell short signal is generated, but not go short. There are all sorts of possibilities for each person. As I said before, the results are illustrative only. You should determine what assumptions are appropriate for you based upon how you use the data presented in the BLOG.
I hope that this line of reasoning is not too complicated. However, portfolio results are only as reliable as the methodology used to bring them about.
Wednesday intra-day update: Canadian ETF stopped out at 97.34; Short Gold stop DGZ 19.51
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
I have constructed my systems to generate high winning ratios when tested against large amounts of data. In so doing, I hope to capture trends as well as over-bought and over-sold situations. Our systems were tested with futures data and profitability was optimized in various ways. In the BLOG, we have applied the systems to both futures and to ETFs. The true test of computerized systems is the success rate generated in real-time.
We started publishing results in the BLOG beginning in January. We are happy with the results that have unfolded thus far. One principle used in designing the programs was to cut losses while letting the winning trades “run.” Our biggest success for 2010 is our open Cotton position ETF that is up over 16%. China is now the world’s largest consumer of Cotton, by the way, and China continues to grow economically. Our biggest closed position win was short the Euro Currency (long the U.S. Dollar), with an 11.1% ETF gain. The long dollar trade was not intuitive, at least to me. Right now, the world markets are trying to determine which currencies are the strongest against the backdrop of deficit spending in most of the developed countries. Our biggest loss was 6% on an early cotton trade, and -3.7% on a short Gold trade, which I didn’t like because of gold’s place as a possible “alternative world currency” in these troubled economic times.
Based upon the assumptions below, the return generated by all of the ETF signals in the BLOG was 3.3% for the period January 7, 2010 through March 7, 2010. (Bloomberg reported tonight that the average hedge fund earned .5% in the month of February). We’ll continue to track the return of the BLOG systems as the signals unfold. The open positions could still go up more, or decline in value as the month of March unfolds. We hope that this rate of return will continue at the current pace for the rest of the year, but make no predictions. However, if we annualize the year-to-date return using simple linear extrapolation, it becomes approximately 20%. I would consider this highly unlikely, since real world results almost never follow a straight line. But in any event, we’re off to a good start for the year. We intend to do our next update after the conclusion of the first quarter. Thanks to the three readers that inspired me to design a way of measuring the real-time success of the computer programs.
Assumptions underlying the results above:
1) The returns do not take into account commissions and other trading costs. My bank (which owns a broker) gives me 30 commission-free trades per month. You should take into account your own percentage commission and other trading costs in determining your own returns.
2) The returns do not take into account “slippage,” that is, the phenomenon that the system generated stop may not be realized in reality. The experienced stop may be better or worse than the one generated by the system.
3) On any given day, we do not know how many positions we will have. The number of active positions varies from day to day. Historically, for 2010, it has ranged between one and six, inclusive. For purposes of our calculations, we assumed 5 positions of equal amounts of money. So, for example, if you had $10,000, you would break it into five equal chunks of $2,000. When a signal comes, we assume that only $2,000 is devoted to it, then $2,000 in the next one, etc. So, for example, as much as we wish we would like to have put every dollar in cotton, we assume that only 20% was put into cotton, etc.
4) We assumed no compounding of earnings. In other words, if the portfolio rises in value to $12,000 from $10,000, we still devote only $2,000 in five chunks each time a signal is generated.
5) The yield on un-invested assets is zero. What we mean here is the return on assets not in a system. This yield is pretty realistic for brokerage houses these days. If anything, it is on the conservative side, that is, the returns we state below would be slightly higher if the assets not being used to trade were invested in something with a positive yield.
6) There are a few signals that exited overnight before the opening of the New York markets the next day. I have excluded those signals from the ETF calculation. However, there were a few that exited during the first day of New York trading, and I included those in the results. My computer systems revise their stops continuously, and so there were a few signals that could not have been followed exactly by the readers of the BLOG. Someday, I may offer the facility to send emails out when the systems generate intra-day signals.
7) The results assume that every signal was followed. You should do your own thinking and decide what risk profile you would like to employ. It is very possible that you might have fundamental issues with some of the signals. You may simply be bullish on stocks. Or you might want to be long gold no matter what. Some may wish to get out of a long position when a sell short signal is generated, but not go short. There are all sorts of possibilities for each person. As I said before, the results are illustrative only. You should determine what assumptions are appropriate for you based upon how you use the data presented in the BLOG.
I hope that this line of reasoning is not too complicated. However, portfolio results are only as reliable as the methodology used to bring them about.
Wednesday intra-day update: Canadian ETF stopped out at 97.34; Short Gold stop DGZ 19.51
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Mixed Markets Today
Many of our markets simply oscillated today. There were no super winners.
There is a new signal for tomorrow: sell gold short. So far this year, shorting gold was our worst signal. Last time is sited the ETF DZZ, which is double-short gold. DGZ is a single-short ETF that I would feel more comfortable with. The record on the system is: 37/50 for a 74% win ratio.
Our open positions are still doing well. The results are shown below. There were no positions closed out for the day. Note that curiously, the ETF on Cocoa is ahead, while the future is down. Again, the reason this phenomenon occurs is that the futures market trades all night (and fell) while the ETF market opened in the morning down, then rallied up during the day.
Good trading! And please let me know if you know of a single short gold ETF.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.04 $6,110
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.03 38.75 13.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 633.30 666.30 $5,530
Long Russell IWM 61.66 63.66 66.98 8.6%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1554.80 1600.10 $3,260
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.44 18.98 3.2%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 90.70 90.84 $370
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.35 91.49 1.3%
Long Canadian CDH10 97.32 95.92 97.32 $0
Long Canadian FXC 97.05 95.64 97.04 0.0%
Long Cocoa CCK10 2828 2638 2802 -$260
Long Cocoa NIB 41.10 39.23 41.67 1.4%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
There is a new signal for tomorrow: sell gold short. So far this year, shorting gold was our worst signal. Last time is sited the ETF DZZ, which is double-short gold. DGZ is a single-short ETF that I would feel more comfortable with. The record on the system is: 37/50 for a 74% win ratio.
Our open positions are still doing well. The results are shown below. There were no positions closed out for the day. Note that curiously, the ETF on Cocoa is ahead, while the future is down. Again, the reason this phenomenon occurs is that the futures market trades all night (and fell) while the ETF market opened in the morning down, then rallied up during the day.
Good trading! And please let me know if you know of a single short gold ETF.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.04 $6,110
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.03 38.75 13.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 633.30 666.30 $5,530
Long Russell IWM 61.66 63.66 66.98 8.6%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1554.80 1600.10 $3,260
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.44 18.98 3.2%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 90.70 90.84 $370
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 91.35 91.49 1.3%
Long Canadian CDH10 97.32 95.92 97.32 $0
Long Canadian FXC 97.05 95.64 97.04 0.0%
Long Cocoa CCK10 2828 2638 2802 -$260
Long Cocoa NIB 41.10 39.23 41.67 1.4%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Want to Hear a Great Commentary on the Markets?
Direct your browser to http://www.cnbc.com/id/27097823 and you'll hear some interesting predictions.
All the metals that we track were down today, except for Platinum, which was up.
One new signal for tomorrow: buy Cocoa. The record is 302 wins out of 379 trades, for 80%. Symbols: CCK10, and NIB. Be cautious with NIB. Yesterday, it only traded 1851 shares, a very low volume for an ETF. This means that one might have execution problems. The bid/ask spread is likely to be high as a percentage of the price.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.04 6110
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.69 39.44 15.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 627.60 666.30 5530
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.86 66.74 8.2%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1554.80 1600.10 3260
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.62 19.16 4.1%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 89.27 90.84 370
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 89.43 91.00 0.8%
Long Canadian CDH10 97.32 95.92 97.32 0
Long Canadian FXC 97.05 95.54 96.93 -0.1%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long British BPH10 150.26 150.68 262.5
Long British FXB 149.84 150.30 0.3%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
All the metals that we track were down today, except for Platinum, which was up.
One new signal for tomorrow: buy Cocoa. The record is 302 wins out of 379 trades, for 80%. Symbols: CCK10, and NIB. Be cautious with NIB. Yesterday, it only traded 1851 shares, a very low volume for an ETF. This means that one might have execution problems. The bid/ask spread is likely to be high as a percentage of the price.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.04 6110
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.69 39.44 15.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 627.60 666.30 5530
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.86 66.74 8.2%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1554.80 1600.10 3260
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.62 19.16 4.1%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 89.27 90.84 370
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 89.43 91.00 0.8%
Long Canadian CDH10 97.32 95.92 97.32 0
Long Canadian FXC 97.05 95.54 96.93 -0.1%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long British BPH10 150.26 150.68 262.5
Long British FXB 149.84 150.30 0.3%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com. I will send you an email every time there is a new post.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Friday Sees Russell 2000 Up Over 2%!
All of the broad stock market indices were up on Friday, and the Russell 2000 outpaced most with a 2.1% gain. It even outshone the S&P 500. What does it mean? Since the stock market is a leading indicator, it bodes well for the economy nine months from now. It also means that the advance is very broad in its base. We went long the Russell on February 16, and we are up about 8% on our ETF.
I have been working on quantifying the results for the BLOG. I am just about done; I think you will be pleased with the results. I have been corresponding directly with three of you concerning what you would like to see, and I think I have come up with something understandable and usable. Thanks for all the comments about this important topic. I am also happy that we are getting more hits on the BLOG each week. I thoroughly enjoy producing it.
For Friday we had a signal to go long the Canadian Dollar; it was stopped out intra-day for a small gain. For Monday, we have another signal to buy the Canadian Dollar again. The system has 55 wins out of 66 trades for 83%. The ETF symbol is FXC. Note that we already are long 2 other currencies, so there is an unmistakable contagion risk here. On the other hand, we already have "locked in" profits on the British Pound, provided that there is not a gap on the ETF. Note in the statistics below that our cotton position is now up 16.8% since we registered a buy signal on February 4th. This is our big winner for the year (so far) in our open positions. For closed positions, our short Euro gained 11.1%. Our biggest loss for the year was short gold with a loss of 3.7%. Our philosophy is to try and cut losses, while letting our gains run.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.43 6305
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.78 39.72 16.8%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 625.60 664.40 5340
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.73 66.62 8.0%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1549.00 1579.10 2210
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.43 18.79 2.1%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 89.27 90.70 230
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 89.42 90.85 0.6%
Long British BPH10 150.26 150.66 151.30 650
Long British FXB 149.84 150.28 150.92 0.7%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Canadian CDH10 96.94 97.22 280.00
Long Canadian FXC 96.66 96.91 0.3%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
I have been working on quantifying the results for the BLOG. I am just about done; I think you will be pleased with the results. I have been corresponding directly with three of you concerning what you would like to see, and I think I have come up with something understandable and usable. Thanks for all the comments about this important topic. I am also happy that we are getting more hits on the BLOG each week. I thoroughly enjoy producing it.
For Friday we had a signal to go long the Canadian Dollar; it was stopped out intra-day for a small gain. For Monday, we have another signal to buy the Canadian Dollar again. The system has 55 wins out of 66 trades for 83%. The ETF symbol is FXC. Note that we already are long 2 other currencies, so there is an unmistakable contagion risk here. On the other hand, we already have "locked in" profits on the British Pound, provided that there is not a gap on the ETF. Note in the statistics below that our cotton position is now up 16.8% since we registered a buy signal on February 4th. This is our big winner for the year (so far) in our open positions. For closed positions, our short Euro gained 11.1%. Our biggest loss for the year was short gold with a loss of 3.7%. Our philosophy is to try and cut losses, while letting our gains run.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.43 6305
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.78 39.72 16.8%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 625.60 664.40 5340
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.73 66.62 8.0%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1549.00 1579.10 2210
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.43 18.79 2.1%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 89.27 90.70 230
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 89.42 90.85 0.6%
Long British BPH10 150.26 150.66 151.30 650
Long British FXB 149.84 150.28 150.92 0.7%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit
Long Canadian CDH10 96.94 97.22 280.00
Long Canadian FXC 96.66 96.91 0.3%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
A Quiet Day
An uneventful day in the markets. Some small gains, and some small losses.
One new signal for tomorrow: buy the British Pound. Record: 56 wins out of 72 trades for 78%.
I am getting close to publishing a measure of return for the BLOG. I am a few days away from writing it up. Stay tuned, because it will be informative.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.19
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.73 39.55 16.3%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 619.50 652.30
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.01 65.29 5.9%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1549.00 1582.00
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.40 18.79 2.1%
Long Canadian CDH10 96.94 95.54 96.94
Long Canadian FXC 96.66 95.23 96.63 0.0%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 89.27 89.93
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 89.52 90.18 -0.1%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Long Euro ECH10 135.69 136.02 412.50
Long Euro ULE 27.02 27.35 1.2%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
One new signal for tomorrow: buy the British Pound. Record: 56 wins out of 72 trades for 78%.
I am getting close to publishing a measure of return for the BLOG. I am a few days away from writing it up. Stay tuned, because it will be informative.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.19
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.73 39.55 16.3%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 619.50 652.30
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.01 65.29 5.9%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1549.00 1582.00
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.40 18.79 2.1%
Long Canadian CDH10 96.94 95.54 96.94
Long Canadian FXC 96.66 95.23 96.63 0.0%
Long Aussie ADH10 90.47 89.27 89.93
Long Aussie FXA 90.30 89.52 90.18 -0.1%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Long Euro ECH10 135.69 136.02 412.50
Long Euro ULE 27.02 27.35 1.2%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
A Change May Be Coming
It was January when we speculated that there might be a turnaround in the direction of the U.S. Dollar. We had a signal to sell short the Euro Currency. The Euro fell for the past several weeks. A couple of days ago, we got an independent signal to buy the Euro. Today, our short Euro was stopped out to give us our biggest realized gain of the year 2010.
The new signals for tomorrow are to buy the Aussie and Canadian Dollars. If these signals are right, coupled with the long Euro, then there may be a big turn coming in the direction of the U.S. Dollar. We'll wait and see.
The Russell 2000, Cotton, and Platinum were up today, so we had some nice moves.
I am grateful for the support I am receiving from all of you. Each week, the number of hits on the BLOG is growing.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.97
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.69 39.89 17.3%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 619.50 649.80
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.08 65.12 5.6%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1548.90 1583.50
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.39 18.80 2.2%
Long Euro ECH10 135.69 136.02 136.98
Long Euro ULE 27.02 27.35 27.54 1.9%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.13 9800.00 48
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.54 11.1% 48
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 -1100.00 8
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
The new signals for tomorrow are to buy the Aussie and Canadian Dollars. If these signals are right, coupled with the long Euro, then there may be a big turn coming in the direction of the U.S. Dollar. We'll wait and see.
The Russell 2000, Cotton, and Platinum were up today, so we had some nice moves.
I am grateful for the support I am receiving from all of you. Each week, the number of hits on the BLOG is growing.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 82.97
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.69 39.89 17.3%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 619.50 649.80
Long Russell IWM 61.66 62.08 65.12 5.6%
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1548.90 1583.50
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.39 18.80 2.2%
Long Euro ECH10 135.69 136.02 136.98
Long Euro ULE 27.02 27.35 27.54 1.9%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.13 9800.00 48
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.54 11.1% 48
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 -1100.00 8
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@live.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
All Positions Go!
All of our current positions are showing profits. Platinum was our big winner today, up 1.5% and the Russell 2000 gained .75%.
There is one new signal for tomorrow: buy Copper. However, it is a very short-term signal, and therefore, I do not recommend it for ETFs.
No signals were stopped out today.
Good luck to all!
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.13 136.16
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.41 20.56 11.2%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 81.85
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.77 39.43 15.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 618.80 648.10
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.82 64.75 5.0%
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 268.30
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1546.20 1576.00
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.40 18.75 1.9%
Long Euro ECH10 135.69 135.79 136.16
Long Duro ULE 27.02 27.00 27.07 0.2%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@blogspot.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
There is one new signal for tomorrow: buy Copper. However, it is a very short-term signal, and therefore, I do not recommend it for ETFs.
No signals were stopped out today.
Good luck to all!
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.13 136.16
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.41 20.56 11.2%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 81.85
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.77 39.43 15.9%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 618.80 648.10
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.82 64.75 5.0%
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 268.30
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1546.20 1576.00
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.40 18.75 1.9%
Long Euro ECH10 135.69 135.79 136.16
Long Duro ULE 27.02 27.00 27.07 0.2%
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@blogspot.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
Russell 2000
The big winner for today was our position in the Russell 2000 stock index: up 2.3%. Stocks often go up in advance of a recovery; however, unemployment is a very lagging indicator.
There is one new signal for today: buy the Euro Currency. We have another signal that is short along with a trailing stop with big profits. The long signal is 59/73=81%, so it is right 81% of the time. Those who are short could go flat for a time, and then resume short after the long signal runs its course. However, the decision is yours.
All of our open positions are sporting good profits. We got stopped out of the long British Pound last night.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.13 135.60
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.49 20.72 12.1%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 83.29
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.71 40.06 17.8%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 618.40 647.90
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.33 64.26 4.2%
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 268.40
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1545.20 1544.00
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.48 18.47 0.4%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days In Out
Long British BPH10 154.30 151.18 -1950.00 5
Long British FXB 153.55 150.83 -1.8% 5 2/24/10 3/1/10
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@blogspot.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
There is one new signal for today: buy the Euro Currency. We have another signal that is short along with a trailing stop with big profits. The long signal is 59/73=81%, so it is right 81% of the time. Those who are short could go flat for a time, and then resume short after the long signal runs its course. However, the decision is yours.
All of our open positions are sporting good profits. We got stopped out of the long British Pound last night.
Open Positions Symbol Entry Stop Close Profit
Short Euro EUH10 144.97 137.13 135.60
Short Euro EOU 18.49 20.49 20.72 12.1%
Long Cotton CTH10 69.82 78.40 83.29
Long Cotton BAL 34.02 37.71 40.06 17.8%
Long Russell TFH10 611.00 618.40 647.90
Long Russell IWM 61.66 61.33 64.26 4.2%
Long Soy Meal SMH10 274.50 263.50 268.40
Long Platinum PLJ10 1534.90 1545.20 1544.00
Long Platinum PTM 18.40 18.48 18.47 0.4%
Closed Positions Symbol Entry Out Profit Days In Out
Long British BPH10 154.30 151.18 -1950.00 5
Long British FXB 153.55 150.83 -1.8% 5 2/24/10 3/1/10
If you wish to be notified of new posts, let me know at bassanalytics@blogspot.com.
Any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an offer, an endorsement, or inducement to invest.
The quotes and symbols used in the BLOG are believed to be reliable, but no guarantees are made with regard to the accuracy.
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